Worldwide Intensity in Mileage and Nursery Gas Outflow Gauges for Vehicles February 10 th , 2005 Amanda Sauer World Asse

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Issues of Comparing Vehicle Standards around the globe. Contrasts in test driving cycles ... Diminishing Carbon Risks (assessed cost per vehicle to meet new carbon limitations) ...

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Worldwide Competitiveness in Fuel Economy and Greenhouse Gas Emission Standards for Vehicles February 10 th , 2005 Amanda Sauer World Resources Institute World Resources Institute

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Overview of Presentation Climate change and cars Comparison of mileage and GHG emanations directions around the globe Impacts of these controls on aggressiveness and esteem creation in the car business

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3 Climate Change and Automobiles Auto industry in policymakers' line of sight in view of CO 2 discharges discharged from copying of fuel: Transport represents 30% of OECD CO 2 outflows Cars and light trucks represent 20% of U.S. outflows. Industry is a piece of the issue … Light trucks, "SUV marvel" Disregard for efficiency … additionally part of the arrangement: New mixture and diesel advancements, and eventually energy units

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Climate Change and Automobiles Pressure to lessen vehicle CO 2 discharges Direct vehicle utilize outflows make up 75% of CO 2 discharges Related fuel generation emanations make up a further 14% EU, Japan, California, Canada all centered around vehicle utilize discharges Materials Assembly Fuel creation Vehicle Use

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5 Fuel Economy and GHG Emissions Regulations in the World's Major Auto Markets European Union : "ACEA assention" looks for 25% diminishment in vehicle CO 2 emanations levels by 2008 (from 1995 levels). Understanding might be amplified an extra 10% by 2012. Japan : requires 23% lessening in vehicle CO 2 outflows by 2010 (from 1995 levels). Australia : willful responsibility to enhance mileage by 18% by 2010. Canada : has proposed a 25% change in efficiency by 2010. China : Introduced new mileage guidelines in 2004; weight-based benchmarks to be presented in 2 stages (2005 and 2008). California : CARB affirmed GHG discharges decreases for autos, as of now under authoritative audit. New York : Clean Cars Bill proposing to take after California principles is at present in advisory group. A few other NE states have shown they will take after CA's lead. An and Sauer, 2004 for the Pew Center on Global Climate Change

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Overview of Vehicle Fuel Efficiency and GHG Standards Around the World An and Sauer, 2004 for the Pew Center on Global Climate Change

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Issues of Comparing Vehicle S tandards around the globe Differences in test driving cycles F uel economy versus fuel utilization versus CO 2 emanations Regulatory versus deliberate Differences in vehicle classifications and weight-classes Corporate armada midpoints versus least prerequisites An and Sauer, 2004 for the Pew Center on Global Climate Change

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Conversion elements to CAFE-proportional MPG and EU-proportionate CO 2 discharge rate of g/km An and Sauer, 2004 for the Pew Center on Global Climate Change

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Methodology to Compare Fuel Economy Standards Worldwide 1. Examine nation/locale particular efficiency/GHG models and future targets 2. Change over mileage/GHG models into armada midpoints (accept that armada structure stays steady for weight/size or vehicle sort targets and that every deliberate target will be met) 3. Pick reference guidelines (in this case, US CAFE) 4. Apply transformation elements (from table on going before slide) 5. Nations/areas now changed over to reference norms and are similar An and Sauer, 2004 for the Pew Center on Global Climate Change

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Comparison of Fuel Economy and GHG Emission Standards An and Sauer, 2004 for the Pew Center on Global Climate Change

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Impacts on the Automobile Industry: Risks and Opportunities

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Lower-carbon Technology Options Carbon limitations will drive OEMs to include new innovations, some of which may prompt to focused additions Key advancements: Incremental Technologies (fuel infusion, consistently factor transmission and so on.) Diesel Technology (pressure start) Hybrid Technology Fuel Cell Technology

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6 Carbon Reduction Potential Key motor advances that give mid-to long haul diminishments of vehicle carbon discharges

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7 Carbon-power of Sales Dependency of 2002 deals in US, EU and Japan on vehicles of high-, medium-and low-carbon force High: more regrettable than 20.7 on-street mpg; Low: superior to 27.5 on-street mpg; Medium: somewhere around 20.7 and 27.5 on-street mpg

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8 Aggregate Value Exposure Estimated cost per vehicle to meet "in all likelihood" carbon imperative situations in US, EU and Japan 25x contrast in Value Exposure over the business

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9 Management Capacity for Low-Carbon Technologies Measure of OEMs' ability to create and popularize principle low-carbon advances: half breeds, diesels & energy components

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10 Carbon Positioning of Leading OEMs Success in a carbon-compelled market will require moving into the upper right quadrant Honda Renault PSA Nissan Toyota VW Decreasing Carbon Risks (evaluated cost per vehicle to meet new carbon limitations) GM Ford DaimlerChrysler BMW Increasing Carbon Opportunities (administration limit score on low-carbon advances)

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11 Implications of Carbon Constraints for Future Earnings Estimated changes in gauge income from incorporation of carbon requirement elements; ranges reflect elective administrative situations in US, EU and Japan.

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16 Conclusions The European Union (EU) and Japan have the most stringent models on the planet. The mileage and nursery gas discharge execution of the U.S. vehicle armada - both verifiably and anticipated in view of current arrangements - linger behind most different countries. These GHG and mileage directions make money related dangers and open doors for car organizations. In our investigation, we found the monetary ramifications of these controls to extend from +10% to - 14% of working salary. In general, the vehicle business is turning out to be progressively worldwide in degree with these controls are turning out to be progressively stringent (with the special case on the U.S.). Consequently mileage will turn into a noteworthy driver in the money related execution of car organizations.

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Amanda Sauer Associate 202 729 7689 Changing Drivers report accessible at: Comparison of Fuel Economy and GHG Emissions Standards report accessible at: 17 Contact Information