Why NASA Needs Solar Cycle Predictions

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. NASA\'s command is to assemble, fly, and work rocket in the antagonistic environment of space. Our prosperity originates from attempting to comprehend what can turn out badly and building and working proper payloads.Things go right, things go worng, however the order is still there.. Sun based Cycle Predictions are expected to.

Presentation Transcript

Slide 1

Why NASA Needs Solar Cycle Predictions W. Dignitary Pesnell NASA, Goddard Space Flight Center Project Scientist, Solar Dynamics Observatory Member, Solar Cycle 24 Prediction Panel

Slide 2

NASA's command is to fabricate, fly, and work rocket in the unfriendly condition of space. Our prosperity originates from attempting to comprehend what can turn out badly and constructing and working fitting payloads. Things go right, things go worng, however the order is still there.

Slide 3

Solar Cycle Predictions are expected to Anticipate orbital rot and requirements for reboosting Anticipate radiation introduction for up and coming missions

Slide 4

Solar Cycle Predictions are expected to Anticipate orbital rot and requirements for reboosting Anticipate radiation presentation for up and coming missions Satisfy our logical interest

Slide 5

Mission Operations must Understand Atmospheric Drag influences each question in low-Earth Orbit Operating satellites may require boosting to remain in a usable circle (ISS, Hubble)

Slide 6

Mission Operations must Understand Atmospheric Drag Large satellites without drive must be observed to guarantee a sheltered reentry (UARS) Knowledge of orbital trash is likewise required (evaluated as one of the greatest dangers to spaceflight)

Slide 7

Mission Planning must Allow for Atmospheric Drag Changes of the Jacchia display exospheric temperature with sun powered and geomagnetic action. Mission organizers must have some approach to gauge future action.

Slide 8

Radiation Hazards must be Understood to be Mitigated Radiation peril is diverse for each circle and term Incident particles run from inestimable beams to very relativistic electrons to sun based protons Missions can have a 10-year leadtime, the Heliophysics Roadmap indicates missions out to 2020! A comprehension of the danger in each of different review circles may decide how the mission is composed Near-constant information of radiation risk is likewise required This requires here and now forecasts of action

Slide 9

Cosmic Rays and the Solar Cycle

Slide 10

Other Radiation Comes from the Sun and Magnetosphere A CME strikes the Earth's magnetosphere. Both provoke (SEPs) and deferred (magnetospheric storms) radiation increments are conceivable.

Slide 12

Who Wouldn't Want to Solve a Century-old Puzzle Flares and coronal mass launches are the birthplaces of space climate—however regardless we don't know how to foresee either! Straightforward timeseries investigation has not delivered exact expectations, extra data is required Solar movement originates from the dynamo inside the convection zone and connects through the photosphere into the crown Many models of the sun powered dynamo exist yet none are finished We have seen some portion of the arrangement: helioseismology and substantial scale numerical models

Slide 13

Flows in the Solar Convection Zone These streams, which are being settled by helioseismology, have been watched for one sun powered cycle. They always show signs of change with the cycle and might be the hint to the sun powered dynamo.

Slide 14

The Solar Dynamics Observatory SDO, the main mission of Living With a Star , will give the information expected to comprehend the sun based convection zone and how attractive field is collected and dispersed in the sun based environment. In any case, that is another story!

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Questions?

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Backup Slides Follow

Slide 18

Babcock-Leighton demonstrate

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