Utilizing Simulation to Study the Protection of Critical Maritime Assets

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13 Dec 2005. 2. Plan. The SEED LabExample ApplicationProtecting Offshore Oil Assets in the Campeche SoundWhy Simulation?Map Aware Non-uniform Automata (MANA)Design of ExperimentFindings. 13 Dec 2005. 3. SEED Lab Research Team. Guideline Investigators: Professor Susan Sanchez and Associate Professor Tom LucasOther Faculty: Senior Lecturer Paul Sanchez Research Assistant Professor Nita Miller

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S imulation E xperiments & E fficient D esigns Using Simulation to Study the Protection of Critical Maritime Assets Tom Lucas, Susan Sanchez, and Felix Martinez Operations Research Department Naval Postgraduate School International Maritime Protection Symposium Honolulu, Hawaii 13 December 2005 http://diana.cs.nps.navy.mil/SeedLab

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Agenda The SEED Lab Example Application Protecting Offshore Oil Assets in the Campeche Sound Why Simulation? Delineate Non-uniform Automata (MANA) Design of Experiment Findings

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SEED Lab Research Team Principle Investigators: Professor Susan Sanchez and Associate Professor Tom Lucas Other Faculty: Senior Lecturer Paul Sanchez Research Assistant Professor Nita Miller Research Assistant Professor Arnie Buss Support: Colonel (ret.) Ed Lesnowicz Thesis Students: More than score…

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Our Research Goal Assist those in DoD in getting knowledge into dubious, mind boggling, high-dimensional issues All models aren't right, yet some are valuable—George Box A model is helpful if a superior choice is made with the data it includes — Wayne Hughes The motivation behind figuring is understanding , not numbers—Hamming I live for shock—Gary Horne War in characteristically flighty. Best case scenario, we can want to decide potential outcomes and probabilities. This infers a specific standard of military judgment… — Marine Corps Doctrinal Publications, Pub 1, Warfighting It's the examiner, not the model, that produces vital helpful outcomes. Enhance the previous before the last mentioned—Seth Bonder

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Our Research Agenda - 1.0 0.0 0.5 1.0 - 1.0 0.0 0.5 1.0 - 1.0 0.0 0.5 1.0 0.0 A - 1.0 0.0 B - 1.0 0.0 C - 1.0 0.0 D - 1.0 0.0 E - 1.0 0.0 F - 1.0 0.0 G - 1.0 - 1.0 0.0 0.5 1.0 - 1.0 0.0 0.5 1.0 - 1.0 0.0 0.5 1.0 - 1.0 0.0 0.5 1.0 Develop, test, and execute high-dimensional look strategies for use in model investigation Assess seek choices—hypothetically and observationally Real issues Thesis understudies Help make calculations accessible to other "travelers" MORS Tutorial: Advances in Large-Scale Simulation Experiments SEED lab: programming and calculations

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2000 Brown (Captain, USMC) Human Dimension of Combat 2001 Vinyard (Major, USMC) Reducing Non-monotonicities in Combat Models MORS/Tisdale Winner, MORS Walker Award 2002 Erlenbruch (Captain, German Army) German Peacekeeping Operations MORS/Tisdale Finalist 2002 Pee (Singapore DSTA) Information Superiority and Battle Outcomes MORS/Tisdale Finalist 2002 Wan (Major, Singapore Army) Effects of Human Factors on Combat Outcomes Dickie (Major, Australian Army) Swarming Unmanned Vehicles MORS/Tisdale Finalist 2002 Ipekci (1 st Lieutenant, Turkish Army) Guerrilla Warfare MORS/Tisdale Winner 2002 Wu (Lieutenant, USN) Spectral Analysis and Sonification of Simulation Data 2002 Cioppa (Lieutenant Colonel, US Army, PhD) Experimental Designs for High-dimensional Complex Models ASA 3 rd Annual Prize for Best Student Paper Applying Stat. to Defense 2003 Efimbe (Lieutenant, US Navy) Littoral Combat Ships Protecting Expeditionary Strike Groups 2003 Wolf (Captain, USMC) Urban, Humanitarian Assistance/Disaster Relief Operations MORSS Best Presentation Award, MORS Barchi Prize Finalist 2004 Milton (Lieutenant Commander, US Navy) Logistical Chain of the Seabase MORS/Tisdale Finalist 2004 Allen (Lieutenant, US Navy) Navigational Accuracy of REMUS Unmanned Underwater Vehicle MORS/Tisdale Finalist 2004 Steele (Ensign, US Navy) Unmanned Surface Vehicles 2004 Hakola (Captain, USMC) Convoy Protection 2004 Lindquist (Captain, US Army) Degraded Communication in the Future Force MORS Tisdale Winner 2004 Aydin (1 st Lieutenant, Turkish Army) Village Search Operations 2004 Raffetto (Captain, USMC) UAVs in Support of IPB in a Sea-Viking Scenario MORS/Tisdale Finalist 2004 Cason (Captain, USMC) UAVs in Support of Urban Operations 2004 Berner (LCDR, US Navy) Multiple UAVs in Maritime Search and Control 2004 Tan (Singapore S&T) Checkpoint security 2005 Babilot (USMC) DO versus Traditional Force in Urban Terrain 2005 Bain (USMC) Logistics Support for Distributed Ops MORS/Tisdale Finalist 2005 Gun (Turkish Army) Sunni Participation in Iraqi Elections 2005 McMindes (USMC) UAV Survivability 2005 Sanders (USMC) Marine Expeditionary Rifle Squad Coming soon… Dec 2005 Ang (Singapore Technologies Engineering) Increasing Participation and Decreasing Escalation in Elections Dec 2005 Chang (Singapore DSTA) Edge versus Various leveled Organizations for Collaborative Tasks Dec 2005 Liang (Singapore DSTA) Cooperative Sensing of the Battlefield Dec 2005 Martinez-Tiburcio (Mexican Navy) Protecting Mexico's Oil Well Infrastructure Dec 2005 Sulewski (USA) UAVs in Army's FCS Family of Systems June 2006 Burnett (DoD Civilian) Modeling Human Behavior in SASO Environments 2006 Many more… Student Theses

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Our Products: State-of-the-craftsmanship Designs "A User's Guide to the Brave New World of Designing Simulation Experiments," Jack P.C. Kleijnen, Susan M. Sanchez, Thomas W. Lucas, and Thomas M. Cioppa, INFORMS Journal on Computing , Vol. 17, No. 3, 2005, pp. 263-289. "Proficient Nearly Orthogonal and Space-filling Latin Hypercubes," Thomas M. Cioppa and Thomas W. Lucas, 2005, Technometrics, expected. Sanchez, S. M. also, P. J. Sanchez, "Very substantial fragmentary factorials and focal composite designs," ACM Transactions on Modeling and Computer Simulation , anticipated. Sanchez, S. M., H. Wan and T. W. Lucas, "A two-stage screening method for reproduction experiments," Proc. 2005 Winter Simulation Conference, eds. M. E. Kuhl, N. M. Steiger, F. B. Armstrong, and J. A. Joines, Institute of Electrical and Electronic Engineers, Piscataway, New Jersey, 2005. Sanchez, S. M., F. Moeeni, and P. J. Sanchez, "So many components, so little time… Simulation tests in the recurrence domain," International Journal of Production Economics, 2005, inevitable.

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Sanchez, Lucas , "Specialist based Simulations: Simple Models, Complex Analyses," Invited paper, Proc. 2002 Winter Simulation Conference , 116-126. Lucas, Sanchez, Brown, Vinyard , "Better Designs for High-Dimensional Explorations of Distillations,"   Maneuver Warfare Science 2002 , Marine Corps Combat Development Command, 2002, 17-46. Vinyard, Lucas , "Investigating Combat Models for Non-monotonicities and Remedies," PHALANX , 35, No. 1, March 2002, 19, 36-38. Lucas, McGunnigle, "When is Model Complexity Too Much? Representing the Benefits of Simple Models with Hughes' Salvo Equations," Naval Research Logistics, Vol. 50, April 2003, 197-217. Lucas, Sanchez, Cioppa, Ipekci , "Creating Hypotheses on Fighting the Global War on Terrorism,"  Maneuver Warfare Science 2003 , Marine Corps Combat Development Command, 2003, 117-137. Lucas, Sanchez, "Keen Experimental Designs Provide Military Decision-Makers With New Insights From Agent-Based Simulations," Naval Postgraduate School RESEARCH , 13, 2 , 20-21, 57-59, 63. Lucas, Sanchez, ""NPS Hosts the Marine Corps Warfighting Laboratory's Sixth Project Albert International Workshop," Lucas, T.W. what's more, S.M. Sanchez, Naval Postgraduate School RESEARCH , 13, 2 , 45-46. Sanchez, Wu , "Recurrence Based Designs for Terminating Simulation Experiments:  A Peace-implementation Example," Proc. 2003 Winter Simulation Conference, 952-959. Cocoa , Cioppa , "Target Force Urban Operations Agent Based Simulation Experiment," Technical Report TRAC-M-TR-03-021, Monterey, CA, June 2003. Cioppa, Brown, Jackson, Muller, Allison , "Military Operations in Urban Terrain Excursions and Analysis With Agent-Based Models," Maneuver Warfare Science 2003 , Quantico, VA, 2003. Cioppa , "Progressed Experimental Designs for Military Simulations," Technical Report TRAC-M-TR-03-011, Monterey, CA, February 2003. Chestnut, Cioppa, Lucas, "Specialist based Simulation Supporting Military Analysis," PHALANX, Vol. 37, No. 3, Sept 2004. Cioppa, Lucas, Sanchez, "Military Applications of Agent-based Simulation," Proc. 2004 Winter Simulation Conference . Cioppa, Lucas, Sanchez, "Military Applications of Agent-Based Simulations," Proceedings of the 2004 Winter Simulation Conference, 171-179 Allen, Buss, Sanchez, "Evaluating Obstacle Location Accuracy in the REMUS Unmanned Underwater Vehicle," Proceedings of the 2004 Winter Simulation Conference, 940-948. Cioppa , "An Efficient Screening Methodology For from the earlier Assessed Non-Influential Factors," Proc. 2004 Winter Simulation Conference, 171-180. Sanchez, "Work Smarter, Not Harder: Guidelines for Designing Simulation Experiments." Proc. of the 2005 Winter Simulation Conference, approaching. Wolf, Sanchez, Goerger, Brown, "Utilizing Agents to Model Logistics," under modification for Military Operations Research. Baird, Paulo, Sanchez, Crowder, " Measuring Information Gain in the Objective Force, under amendment for Military Operations Research . Different Publications

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Resources: The SEED Lab S imulation E xperiments & E fficient D esigns http://diana.cs.nps.navy.mil/SeedLab Check here for: Lists of understudy proposals (accessible on the web) Spreadsheets & programming Pdf records for a few of our distributions, production information for the rest Links to different assets Updates

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The Campeche Sound More than 83 percent of hydrocarbon sent out in Mexico is removed from this territory. Amid 2004, PEMEX traded an every day normal of 1,844,000 petroleum barrels, of which 78 percent was sent to the United States. The marine region, where PEMEX is dynamic incorporates an aggregate surface of 518,390 km 2 . There are 243 marine stages and 2,274 kms of subsurface channels.

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Motivation The USS Cole bombarding was a suicide b