Utilizing LAPS as a part of the Conjecture Office

Presentation Transcript

Utilizing LAPS as a part of the Forecast Office By Steve Albers May 2002

LAPS A framework intended to: Exploit every single accessible dat sources Create dissected and figure matrices Build items for particular conjecture applications Use propelled show innovation … All inside the neighborhood climate office

Why do examination in the nearby office?

"THE CONCEPT OF THE LOCAL DATA BASE IS CENTRAL TO FUTURE OPERATIONS… THE MOST COMPLETE DATA SETS WILL ONLY BE AVAILABLE TO THE LOCAL WFO. THE NEW OBSERVING SYSTEMS ARE DESIGNED TO PROVIDE INTEGRATED 3-D DEPICTIONS OF THE RAPIDLY CHANGING STATE OF THE ENVIRONMENT." - Strategic arrangement for the modernization and related rebuilding of the National Weather Service

LAPS Grid LAPS Grid (in AWIPS) Hourly Time Cycle Horizontal Resolution = 10 km Vertical Resolution = 50 mb Size: 61 x 61 x 21

Data Acquisition and Quality Control

LAPS Data Sources The blue hued information are right now utilized as a part of AWIPS LAPS. The other information are utilized as a part of the "full-blown" LAPS and can conceivably be added to AWIPS/LAPS if the information gets to be accessible.

Local Surface Data Local Data might be characterized as that information not going into the National Database Sources Highway Departments Many States with full or incomplete systems Agricultural Networks State run, now and again private Universities and Other Schools Experimental perceptions Private Industry Environmental checking State and Federal Agencies RAWS

Problems with Local Data Poor Maintenance Poor Communications Poor Calibration Result - > Inaccurate, Irregular, Observations

Multi-layered Quality Control Gross Error Checks Rough Climatological Estimates Station Blacklist Dynamical Models Use of meso-beta models Standard Deviation Check Statistical Models (Kalman Filter) Buddy Checking

Standard Deviation Check Compute Standard Deviation of perceptions foundation Remove anomalies Now movable through namelist

Kalman QC Scheme FUTURE Upgrade to AWIPS/LAPS QC Adaptable to little workstations Accommodates models of changing many-sided quality Model blunder is a dynamic amount inside the channel, along these lines the plan conforms as model aptitude shifts

Kalman Flow Chart

AWIPS 5.1.2 LAPS Improvements: Wind Profiler Ingest reestablished QC edge fixed Surface Stations More neighborhood (LDAD) station information Improved QC of MSLP

AWIPS 5.2.1 LAPS Improvements: Surface Analysis Improved Successive Correction considers instrument and foundation mistakes Works with uneven station dividing and territory Reduction of bulls-eye impacts (that had happened even with substantial stations) Improved Surface Pressure Consistency MSLP Reduced Unreduced (landscape taking after)

AWIPS 5.2.2 LAPS Improvements: Additional Backgrounds, for example, AVN Supports LAPS in Alaska, Pacific Domain Relocatability Surface Analysis Improved fit amongst obs and investigation Corrected "theta check" for temperature examination at high rise destinations Stability Indices included Wet Bulb Zero, K, TT, Showalter, LCL

Candidate Future Improvements: GUI Domain Resizability Graphical Product Monitor Surface Obs QC Turning on Kalman Filter QC (sfc_qc.exe) Tighten T, Td QC checks Allow namelist alteration of QC checks Handling of surface stations with known predisposition

Candidate Future Improvements (cont): Surface Analysis Land/Sea weighting to help with coastline impacts Adjustment of lessened weight stature Other Background Models Hi-res Eta? Enhanced utilization of radar information Multiple radars? Wideband Level-II information? Sub-cloud vanishing Doppler outspread speeds

Candidate Future Improvements (cont.) Use of unmistakable & 3.9u satellite in cloud investigation LI/CAPE/CIN with various bundles in limit layer New (Bunkers) strategy for processing storm movements bolstering to helicity assurance Wind profiler Include obs from simply outside the area Implies rebuilding wind examination ACARS Forecast Model (Hot-Start MM5)

Sources of LAPS Information The LAPS landing page http://laps.fsl.noaa.gov gives access to numerous connections including: What is in AWIPS LAPS? http://laps.fsl.noaa.gov/LAPB/AWIPS_WFO_page.htm

Analysis Information LAPS investigation talks are close to the base of: http://laps.fsl.noaa.gov/presentations/presentations.html Especially critical are the connections for Satellite Meteorology Analyses: Temperature, Wind, and Clouds/Precip. Demonstrating and Visualization A Collection of Case Studies

3-D Temperature Interpolate from model (RUC) Insert RAOB, RASS, and ACARS if accessible 3-Dimensional weighting utilized Insert surface temperature and mix upward relying upon strength and height Surface temperature examination relies on upon METARS, Buoys, and LDAD Gradients balanced by IR temperature

3-D Clouds Preliminary investigation from vertical "soundings" got from METARS and PIREPS IR used to decide cloud best (utilizing temperature field) Radar information embedded (3-D if accessible) Visible satellite can be utilized

3-D Cloud Analysis

LAPS Snow Cover and Precip. Sort

LAPS 3-D Water Vapor (Specific Humidity) Analysis Interpolates foundation field from brief scale display estimate QCs against LAPS temperature field (disposes of conceivable supersaturation) Assimilates RAOB information Assimilates limit layer dampness from LAPS Sfc Td examination Scales dampness profile (whole profile barring limit layer) to concur with inferred GOES TPW (handled at NESDIS) Scales dampness profile at two levels to concur with GOES sounder radiances (channels 10, 11, 12). The levels are 700-500 hPa, or more 500 Saturates where there are dissected mists Performs last QC against supersaturation

Products Derived from Wind Analysis

Case Study Example A case of the utilization of LAPS in convective occasion 14 May 1999 Location: DEN-BOU WFO

Quote from the Field "...for the hourly LAPS soundings, you can go to intelligent skew-T, and circle the editable soundings starting with one hour then onto the next, and get a more exact thought of how different parameters are changing on a hourly basis...nice. We keep on finding extensive utilization of the LAPS information (counting soundings) for fleeting convective forecasting."

Case Study Example On 14 May, dampness is set up. A line of tempests creates along the foothills around twelve LT (1800 UTC) and moves east. LAPS used to analyze potential for extreme advancement. A Tornado Watch issued by ~1900 UTC for parts of eastern CO and close-by ranges. A brief tornado formed in far eastern CO west of GLD around 0000 UTC the fifteenth. Different tornadoes happened later close GLD.

NOWRAD and METARS with LAPS surface CAPE 2100 UTC

NOWRAD and METARS with LAPS surface CIN 2100 UTC

Dewpoint max shows up close CAPE max, yet between METARS 2100 UTC

Examine soundings close CAPE max at focuses B, E and F 2100 UTC

Soundings close CAPE max at B, E and F 2100 UTC

RUC additionally has dewpoint max close point E 2100 UTC

LAPS & RUC sounding examination at point E (CAPE Max) 2100 UTC

CAPE Maximum perseveres in same range 2200 UTC

CIN least in region of CAPE max 2200 UTC

Point E, CAPE has expanded to 2674 J/kg 2200 UTC

Convergence and Equivalent Potential Temperature are co-found 2100 UTC

How does LAPS sfc difference contrast with that of the RUC? Comparable over the fields. 2100 UTC

LAPS winds each 10 km, RUC winds each 80 km 2100 UTC

Case Study Example (cont.) The following pictures demonstrate a progression of LAPS soundings from close LBF outlining some emotional changes in the dampness high up. Why does this happen?

LAPS sounding close LBF 1600 UTC

LAPS sounding close LBF 1700 UTC

LAPS sounding close LBF 1800 UTC

LAPS sounding close LBF 2100 UTC

Case Study Example (cont.) Now we will inspect a few LAPS cross-areas to explore the adjustments in dampness, mixed with a succession of satellite pictures demonstrating the area of the cross-segment, C-C` (from WSW to ENE crosswise over DEN)

Visible picture with LAPS 700 mb temp and wind and METARS 1500 UTC Note the solid warm slope overhead from NW-S (snowing in southern WY) and the LL dampness inclination crosswise over eastern CO.

LAPS Analysis at 1500 UTC, Generated with Volume Browser

Visible picture 1600 UTC

Visible picture 1700 UTC

LAPS cross-segment 1700 UTC

LAPS cross-area 1800 UTC

LAPS cross-segment 1900 UTC

Case Study Example (cont.) The cross-areas demonstrate some genuinely generous changes in mid-level RH. Some of this is identified with LAPS conclusion of mists, however alternate changes must be brought on by the satellite dampness examination between overcast zones. It is not clear how reasonable some of these are for this situation.

Case Study Example (cont.) Another field that can be checked with LAPS is helicity. A portrayal of LAPS helicity is at http://laps.fsl.noaa.gov/frd/laps/LAPB/AWIPS_WFO_page.htm A tempest movement is gotten from the mean wind (sfc-300 mb) with an off mean wind movement dictated by a vector expansion of 0.15 x Shear vector, set to opposite to the mean tempest movement Next we'll look at some helicity pictures for this case. Consolidating CAPE and least CIN with helicity concurred with the way of the supercell storm that delivered the CO tornado.

NOWRAD with METARS and LAPS surface helicity 1900 UTC

NOWRAD with METARS and LAPS surface helicity