Timberland Growth and Fire Fuel Predictions for Air Quality Modeling

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Woods Growth and Fire Fuel Predictions for Air Quality Modeling Limei Ran, Uma Shankar, Aijun Xiu, B.H. Baek, Zac Adelman Institute for the Environment, UNC Don McKenzie Pacific Wildland Fire Sciences Laboratory, USDA FS Steve McNulty, Jennifer Moore Myers Southern Global Change Program, USDA FS

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Outline of the Presentation Background of the Study. PnET-II Forest Growth Model (2000-2050) Base Year and Future Year Fuel Estimation and BlueSky/SMOKE Modeling Fire Scenario Builder and Biogenic Emission Estimation Issues with PnET II Model and Fuel Estimation Acknowledgments

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Background of the concentrate Part of research under venture - Integrated Modeling of Forest Growth, Fire Emissions, and Air Quality in Future Climate (EPA STAR) Purpose of the venture is to: Study the impacts of environmental change on timberland development and fire recurrence and force Investigate strategies to model fire and biogenic outflows from future woodland. Look at effect of environmental change from out of control fire on U.S. air quality

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Integrated Modeling System Monthly met. Fire Scenario Builder CCSM FCCS Base & future year fuel information Initial & limit met. PnET-II Hourly met METCHEM (MM5-MCPL/MAQSIP ) FIA BlueSky/EPM MEGAN SMOKE Fire movement information Anthropogenic stocked discharges Gridded & Speciated Emissions

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PnET-II Forest Growth Model Use PnET-II demonstrate inside the PEcon Model created at SGCP. PEcon is a coupled displaying framework with: PnET demonstrate and SRTS (Sub-territorial Timber Supply Model ) PnET show created to foresee timberland profitability in view of atmosphere, site data, and vegetation parameters. SGCP gave the model and information bases to run the model in SE 11 states from 1990-2198

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Flow Chart of PEcon Climate Spatial Update Equilibrium PnET-II PnET-CN Volume 1 Update Inventory Allocate Harvest FIA SRTS Volume 2 Calculate Acres Harvested Calculate Growth Volume 3 Update Acres Inventory and Harvest FIA Plot Vegetation parameters

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Model Modifications and Input Data Preparation Modified PEcon codes to fit our venture Created new info information in SE 13 states at district level New site information (WHC, DEM, lat-long, arrive range) Monthly met information (9 parameters) from CCSM (2000-2050) and NARR (2000-2006) memorable information Spatial table to relate provinces to CCSM and NARR matrices Computed yearly biomass from plot/species to area/species bunches from 2000 FIA biomass and PnET yield. For the presentation, utilized PnET yield from SGCP database because of extraordinary temp. issue in CCSM

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Fuel Load Estimation and BlueSky/SMOKE Modeling BlueSky takes three info documents to model fire outflow 1-km networks with FCCS fuelbed IDs (114 one of a kind IDs) Fuel stack query table ( DWM , grass, bush, and shelter ) Fire data information (area and territory blazed) Created FIA species gathering to FCCS fuel bed cross strolling table to reliably overhaul FCCS DWM and shade Created a Perl program to update fuel loads in light of: 1. DWM_Biomass 2. FCCS power device with FIPS 3. FCCS fuel table 4. FIA2FCCS table Base Year 2002 BlueSky/SMOKE run: 2002 FIA DWM and biomass got from FS SRS at Knoxville VISTAS fire data

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54 FCCS Fuelbeds in SE 180 Red maple - Oak - Hickory - Sweetgum backwoods 181 Pond pine timberland 182 Longleaf pine - Slash pine/Saw palmetto - Gallberry timberland 184 Longleaf pine/Turkey oak timberland 186 Turkey oak - Bluejack oak woods 187 Longleaf pine/Yaupon backwoods 189 Sand pine - Oak woodland 203 Sawgrass - Muhlenbergia field 210 Pinyon - Juniper backwoods 232 Mesquite savanna 236 Tobosa - Grama meadow 240 Saw palmetto/Three-awned grass shrubland 264 Post oak - Blackjack oak backwoods 267 American beech - Yellow birch - Sugar maple - Red spruce timberland 269 Sugar maple - Yellow poplar - American beech - Oak timberland 270 Red spruce - Fraser fir/Rhododendron timberland 272 Red mangrove - Black mangrove woodland 274 American beech - Sugar maple woods 275 Chestnut oak - White oak - Red oak woods 276 Oak - Pine - Magnolia backwoods 280 Bluestem - Gulf cordgrass prairie 281 Shortleaf pine - Post oak - Black oak backwoods 282 Loblolly pine timberland 283 Willow oak - Laurel oak - Water oak woodland 284 Green cinder - American elm - Silver maple - Cottonwood backwoods Bald-cypress - Water tupelo timberland 289 Pond-cypress/Muhlenbergia - Sawgrass savanna 0 Urban - agribusiness - desolate 27 Ponderosa pine - Two-needle pine - Juniper woodland 30 Turbinella oak - Ceanothus - Mountain mahogany shrubland 43 Arizona white oak - Silverleaf oak - Emory oak forest 49 Creosote bramble shrubland 55 Western juniper/Sagebrush savanna 56 Sagebrush shrubland 57 Wheatgrass - Cheatgrass prairie 66 Bluebunch wheatgrass - Bluegrass prairie 90 White oak - Northern red oak woodland 107 Pitch pine/Scrub oak backwoods 109 Eastern white pine - Northern red oak - Red maple timberland 110 American beech - Yellow birch - Sugar maple woods 114 Virginia pine - Pitch pine - Shortleaf pine backwoods 123 White oak - Northern red oak - Black oak - Hickory timberland 131 Bluestem - Indian grass - Switchgrass field 133 Tall fescue - Foxtail - Purple bluestem field 135 Eastern redcedar - Oak/Bluestem savanna 154 Bur oak savanna 157 Loblolly pine - Shortleaf pine - Mixed hardwoods woods 164 Sand pine backwoods 165 Longleaf pine/Three-awned grass - Pitcher plant field 166 Longleaf pine/Three-awned grass - Pitcher plant savanna 168 Little gallberry - Fetterbush shrubland 173 Live oak/Sea oats savanna 174 Live oak - Sabal palm woods 175 Smooth cordgrass - Black needlerush prairie

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29 FIA Species Groups to FCCS Fuelbeds

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Revised FCCS PEC Emission from Revised and Original FCCS Fuel Loads Original FCCS

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Future Year Fuel Load Estimation Preliminary factual investigation to fabricate prescient models (in SAS E. Excavator) for DWM from biomass and related information did not demonstrate great results. DWM inconstancy is more connected with stand aggravations and atmosphere than straightforwardly with biomass. Utilize base year DWM information Update shelter fills as an altered extent of aggregate reenacted biomass

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Fire Scenario Builder and Biogenic Emission Estimation Fire Prediction Dr. McKenzie will give us base and future fire data from FSB in Western US for better limit conditions. Taking a shot at making input information sets to run FSB in eastern US (counting human-brought about starts with FS SRS in RTP). Biogenic Emission Will Use MEGAN to create biogenic emanations. MEGAN takes gridded month to month LAI, atmosphere information, plant work sort and discharge consider documents. Figure LAI for species amass at area level from PnET. Redesign MEGAN LAI matrix record by distributing region level LAI of species gatherings with coordinating MEGAN plant work sorts. Upgrade month to month met information utilizing CCSM.

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Issues with PnET II Model PnET does not show spatial changes in vegetation species Constant development calculate for species biomass from plot to district Assumed that mortality and evacuation rates continue as before Used 10% of biomass for shade fuel for every single woods sort. CCSM: outrageous month to month min and max temperature amid summer months.

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Issues with Fuel Estimation Potential predispositions in crosswalk from FIA to FCCS fuelbeds have default values with no spatial inconstancy crosswise over scenes and it is hard to confirm current FCCS powers Impossible to check future expectation Assume every single other discharge continue as before Despite numerous vulnerabilities, we can at present foresee changing flame and biogenic outflows from evolving coverings. It provides better approaches for incorporating woods development and fuel changes for future air quality demonstrating. By the by...

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Acknowledgments We appreciatively recognize the support of the USDA Forest Service Southern Research Station at Knoxville, TN. We say thanks to Jeffery Turner, Samuel Lambert, and Sonja N. Oswalt for preparing FIA P2 and P3 information in southeast US for us and encouraging us how to utilize the information appropriately. The work profited a great deal from the SQL bolster gave by Darin Del Vecchio on handling present and future biomass information into districts. This venture is completely financed by US EPA under the STAR Grant RD 83227701.

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Atmospheric Instability - CAPE Map Types 500mb 700mb Flammability Ignition Avail Fire Generator Fire Scenario Builder MM5 (mesoscale demonstrate) Fire recurrence & fuel maps Management RxFire/concealment NFDRS Equations anticipate fuel dampness in fuel measure classes that convey fire. Fire Starts Fire Sizes Human starts (East)