The Transcension Speculation: Vast Oversight of Cutting edge Developments Regal Society Satellite Meeting October 2010 ?

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The Transcension Hypothesis: Cosmic Censorship of Advanced Civilizations Royal Society Satellite Meeting October 2010  Buckinghamshire, UK John Smart, President Acceleration Studies Foundation accelerating.org/slides.html | johnsmart@accelerating.org

Acceleration Studies Foundation: What We Do We rehearse transformative formative (" evo devo ") prescience, a model of progress that proposes our universe contains both: 1. Unforeseen and capricious transformative decisions that we use to make novel, educationally profitable, and imaginative ways (a hefty portion of which will fall flat) and 2. United and unsurprising formative limitations (starting conditions, constancies) which coordinate certain parts of our long-go future and Some formative patterns that might be characteristic for the eventual fate of complex frameworks on Earth include: Accelerating insight , association and insusceptibility in our worldwide sociotechnological frameworks Increasing innovative self-sufficiency , and Increasing closeness of the human-machine and physical-advanced interface.

Evo Com pu Devo (ECD) Cartoon Post-Darwinian Model: Evol . Devel . ( Evo Devo ) "Common Selection" Main Actor: Organism Modularity, Responsiveness, Plasticity, Intelligence (Local Adaptation) Requisite Variety Mixed Attractors Adapt ation "Experimentation" Main Actor: Seed Variation, Emergence, Chaos, Contingency, Early Species Radiation (Mostly Nonadapted) Stochastic Search Strange Attractors Radiation "Merged Unification" Main Actor: Environment Heritability, Life Cycle, Replic., STEM Compression, Self-Org., Ergodicity/Comp. Conclusion, "Transformative" Convergence , Path-Dependence, Dissipative Structures, Positive Sumness/Synergy, Niche Construction/Stigmergy ( Global Adaptation) Environmental Optimization Standard Attractors Hierarchy Evolutionary 'Left Hand' of Change Development 'Right Hand' of Change Com pu (Evo Devo) (Inter area) New Computational Phase Space "Opening" Well-Explored Phase Space "Enhancement" Evo Devo Universe? , J. Shrewd, In: Cosmos & Culture, Steve Dick (ed.), 2009

An EDU Analogy: Genetically Identical Twins and Parametrically Identical Universes In hereditarily indistinguishable twins , organogenesis, fingerprints, mind wiring, learned thoughts, practices, all the nearby, tiny procedures are unusually (developmentally) interesting in every twin (Jain 2002). However numerous worldwide, naturally visible procedures are typically the same . Would parametrically indistinguishable universes likewise be developmentally extraordinary yet formatively the same? Are our universe's (proposed) numerous shrewd human advancements additionally developmentally extraordinary yet formatively indistinguishable? Key inquiries for cosmology, astrobiology, recreation science. The Hypothesis: (Predictable and moderate) improvement is constantly not the same as however works with (capricious and inventive) transformative procedures . Both appear to be essential to general many-sided quality .

Evo Devo in Observ., Emergence & Control: The '95/5%' Rule of Thumb by far most (we may generally propose 95 % ) of the data and calculation to portray and demonstrate development of another complex versatile framework (CAS), or control in a develop CAS includes base up, neighborhood, transformative procedures . A minor yet basic commitment (once more, let us generally propose 5% ) originates from top-down, various leveled, formative procedures . Ex: No. of qualities utilized (and very saved) in formative toolbox in any species (eg., Dictyostelium, 2-3% ), versus the much bigger number of "transformative" qualities a great deal more as often as possible adjusted and which influence phenotype variety , not advancement. The 95/5% Rule may clarify why disclosure of general advancement been troublesome not in material science and science (e.g., mechanics, relativity, molecule physical science), and in formative bio, however in macrobiological change , in the public eye , and innovation . In these last substrates, which are not yet ergodic , the life-cycle of the ('5%') nonrandom devel. flag is any longer and just incompletely detectable versus the ('95%') close arbitrary transformative flag.

Evo Compu Devo (ECD) Examples: Experimentation + Selec tion + Convergent Unification " Quantum Darwinism' in the move from quantum to traditional (relativity, thermo, established mechanics) material science (Blume-Kohout and Zurek 2005) Transition from tumultuous/unusual to probabilistic/unsurprising physical administrations Invariant versus eccentric rises in cell automata (Wolfram) Stellar nucleosynthesis (Wallenberg) Biogenesis (Smith and Morowitz 2006) Multicellularity (Newman and Bhat 2008) 'Neural Darwinism' being developed (Edelman 1989) Cognitive selectionism (considering) (Calvin 1985) Evolutionary brain research (Wright 1998) Cultural, "memetic" determination (Dawkins, Aunger) Technological "technetic" choice (Kelly, Blackmore) Evolutionary calculation and fake life (Koza, Sipper) Cosmological common choice (Smolin 1992) EvoDevoUniverse.com

Free Energy (Phi, Φ ) of Dissipative Structures Traces out a Universal Hyperbolic Curve Energy Flow Density ( Φ ) Substrate (ergs/sec/gm) Global AI of the 21st C 10^12+ Pentium II of the 1990's ( 10^11 ) Intel 8080 of the 1970's 10^10 Modern Engines 10^5 to 10^8 Culture (human) 500,000 (10^5) Brains (human) 150,000 (10^5) Animals (murmur. body) 20,000 ( 10^4 ) Ecosystems 900 Planets (Early) 75 Stars 2 Galaxies 0.5 Eric Chaisson, Cosmic Evolution , 2001 Free vitality stream thickness values in progressively developing CAS.

The J Curve and the "Tech Singularity" First-Order Components are Growth-Limited Hierarchical Substrates (S and B Curves) Second-Order Hyperbolic Growth Emergence Singularities and a Limit Singularity Examples: ▪ Sagan's Cosmic Calendar ▪ Chaisson's FERD (Complexity) ▪ Global Economic Performance ▪ Sci & Tech Performance Metrics ▪ Cultural Adoption of Innovation Accelerating Socio-Technological Evol.: From Ephemeralization & Stigmergy to the Global Brain , Francis Heylighen, 2007. The Larger Context for Moore's Law: Superexponential Long-term Trends in Information Technology , Nagy et. al., 2010

Black Holes as Evolutionary Developmental Systems Engaged in 'Cosmological Natural Selection' Black Holes as "Seeds" for New U. Creation. No less than 8 of the 20+ essential parameters of our standard model of molecule material science (potential starting states of our universe) seem tweaked for: -fertile dark opening generation -universes with multi-billion year life expectancies , fit for making life. Begin with: Lee Smolin, The Life of the Cosmos , 1997 More theoretical: James Gardner, Biocosm , 2003

CNS is Testable By Simulation Just as we see formative (monitored, basic, inside chose) and transformative (fluctuated, remotely chose) qualities in organic phenospace, we should discover both formative (tweaked) and developmental (variable) major parameters in our own universe's specific arrangement of introductory conditions. Per Smolin (1996) and Vaas (1998) this forecast is now (and progressively) testable by reproduction. 'Child universes' investigating widespread phenospace on a phylogenetic tree, with a low fanning rate and incessant terminal expanding in this toon (Adapted from Linde 1994). Systematics graph. Living creatures investigating a phylogenetic tree in evo-devo science

Black Hole Transition: Optimal Computational and Forward Time Travel Devices Computation: Black gaps are the most effective computational frameworks known in material science. t flip = t comm on the occasion skyline (Seth Lloyd, Ultimate physical points of confinement to calculation, Nature , 2000. Forward Time Travel: Black opening time widening permits prompt forward time travel. Inside a dark opening, outer tickers move self-assertively quick . Benefits: Instantaneous perception of: the rest of nearby widespread change. Prompt go to: every one of the spots conceivable under dim vitality.

Black Hole Mergers: Our Long Term Universal Future From the dark opening's opportunity point of view, such mergers will happen for all intents and purposes quickly , in no subjective time . This is on account of dark gaps, and just dark openings, are a 'one-way time travel gadget.' On the widespread scale, unpredictability is currently self-fractionating into nearby 'enlightening islands' (supergalaxies). Our supergalaxy will incorporate just the Milky Way and Andromeda systems (Nagamine and Loeb 2003) Each of these supergalaxies contains developmentally uniqueness, and might be required to take part in normal choice upon merger. Aloof or dynamic dark opening merger situation.

Transcension Hypothesis: The Inner Space Answer to the Fermi Paradox Even Andromeda Galaxy is just 2 process. light yrs away. Our Milky Way Galaxy is only 45,000 light-years in range. Earth-like planets are 1-2 Billion years more seasoned than us, nearer to the center in the GHZ . So where are the ET's? A couple of primitive civs are in Normal Space, every single propelled one are in Inner Space. "Spillage signs" and smaller than expected reference points are sent over a short (200-300 yr?) traverse before transcension. They have no craving to convey once they remember one-way correspondence is either not valuable or will decrease their transformative differing qualities. A Prediction: Leakage signals (10-10,000), and their yearly suspension (r = 1/life expectancy), will both be recognized by future SETI. Real guides essentially won't be found (with the exception of in formative disappointment cosmic systems) Answering the Fermi Paradox: Mechanisms of Universal Transcension , JE&T , J. Shrewd, 2002

Testing the Transcension Hypothesis 1. Consider Tech Performance Curves. Advantage: Better innovation prescience & R&D. 2. Ponder