The Modular Modeling System MMS: A Toolbox for Water-and Environmental-Resources Modeling and Management

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Beginning stages. There are no all inclusive modelsModels for diverse purposes require distinctive levels of point of interest and comprehensivenessAppropriate model procedure conceptualizations are a component of issue goals, information imperatives, and spatial and transient sizes of use. Displaying Conundrum.

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The Modular Modeling System (MMS): A Toolbox for Water-and Environmental-Resources Modeling and Management G.H. Leavesley, S.L. Markstrom, R.J. Viger, and L.E. Feed U.S. Land Survey, Denver, CO USA

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STARTING POINTS There are no all inclusive Models for various purposes require distinctive levels of detail and exhaustiveness Appropriate model process conceptualizations are an element of issue targets, information limitations, and spatial and transient sizes of use

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Modeling Conundrum Experimental science expands on speculation testing and translation in light of prior distributed theories and results Modelers tend to develop from the beginning existing models are not very much intended for incremental change by others

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TOOL BOX MODELING VIEWS Research Model Developer Complex Detail Application Model Developer Model User Resource Manager Policy Maker Condensed Analysis

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LEVELS OF MODULAR DESIGN PROCESS MODEL FULLY COUPLED MODELS LOOSELY COUPLED MODELS RESOURCE MANAGEMENT DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEMS ANALYSIS AND SUPPORT TOOLS Single Purpose Multi-objective, Complex

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LEVELS OF MODULAR DESIGN PROCESS MODEL FULLY COUPLED MODELS LOOSELY COUPLED MODELS RESOURCE MANAGEMENT DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEMS ANALYSIS AND SUPPORT TOOLS

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CRITERIA AND RULES FOR GOOD MODULE DESIGN relate specifically to certifiable parts or procedures have information and yield factors that are quantifiable qualities impart exclusively by means of these information and yield factors Modules ought to Reynolds J.F., and Acock, B., 1997, Modularity and nonexclusivity in plant and biological community models : Ecological Modeling 94, p 7-16

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Model Building Tool - XMBUILD

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USGS PRMS GSFLOW WEBMOD OTHER TOPMODEL Hydro-17 (NWS snowmelt) Sacramento Model (NWS) Snowmelt Runoff Model (SRM) (ARS) ENNS Model (adjusted HBV, Austria) SELECTED MODELS AND MODULES IN MMS

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LEVELS OF MODULAR DESIGN PROCESS MODEL FULLY COUPLED MODELS LOOSELY COUPLED MODELS RESOURCE MANAGEMENT DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEMS ANALYSIS AND SUPPORT TOOLS

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Ground Water - Surface Water Coupling DAFLOW PRMS MODFLOW

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GSFLOW - Coupled PRMS, MODFLOW, SFR, and Unsaturated Zone Models PRMS to SFR Unsaturated Zone Model: PRMS to UNSAT to MODFLOW PRMS to MODFLOW to SFR Streamflow

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LEVELS OF MODULAR DESIGN PROCESS MODEL FULLY COUPLED MODELS LOOSELY COUPLED MODELS RESOURCE MANAGEMENT DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEMS ANALYSIS AND SUPPORT TOOLS

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Watershed Model Hydraulics Model Fish Model LOOSELEY COUPLED MODELS MMS Model Off-the-rack Model Database Data Management Interface (DMI)

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Watershed Model Fish Model LOOSELEY COUPLED MODELS Hydraulics Model

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Watershed Model Fish Model LOOSELEY COUPLED MODELS PRMS Channel Geometry Analysis Program (CGAP) Hydraulics Model Habitat Suitability Index

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Coupled Model Results

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Watershed Model Hydraulics Model Fish Model LOOSELEY COUPLED MODELS MMS Model Off-the-rack Model Database Data Management Interface (DMI) Model Management Interface (MMI) [XML]

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OBJECT USER INTEFACE (OUI)

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LEVELS OF MODULAR DESIGN PROCESS MODEL FULLY COUPLED MODELS LOOSELY COUPLED MODELS RESOURCE MANAGEMENT DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEMS ANALYSIS AND SUPPORT TOOLS

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Recreation Watershed and River Systems Management Program Municipal & Industrial Irrigation Hydropower Research and improvement of choice emotionally supportive networks and their application to accomplish an impartial adjust among water asset issues. Riparian Habitat Endangered Species

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RiverWare – Lower Colorado River

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DMI Object User Interface for information perception and demonstrating Modular Modeling System Precipitation/Runoff Model (PRMS) Upper Gunnison River DSS Hydromet Real-time atmosphere information bolster Hydrologic Database DMI RiverWare Reservoir and River System Operations Model DMI

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Generic DSS Framework for a Wide Range of Management Issues Any Resource Management Model Climate Data Source Any Database DMI MMI Object User Interface for information representation and displaying Modular Modeling System Physical Process Models

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WARSMP Basins Currently Active Gunnison, Truckee, Upper Rio Grande, Yakima Under Development San Juan, Umatilla, Upper Columbia Future Bitterroot, Carson, Central Platte, Lower Rio Grande, Salmon

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LEVELS OF MODULAR DESIGN PROCESS MODEL FULLY COUPLED MODELS LOOSELY COUPLED MODELS RESOURCE MANAGEMENT DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEMS ANALYSIS AND SUPPORT TOOLS

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GIS WEASEL Delineation: Only requires rise Grid as information Interactively portray Area of Interest Many sorts of elements Streams Elevation groups Landuse Contributing territories Topographic list …

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DIGITAL DATABASES STATSGO Soils (USDA) Vegetation Type (USFS) Satellite SW Radiation (U Md) Vegetation Density (USFS) Land Use-Land Cover (USGS) Monthly PET

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AUTOMATED PARAMETER ESTIMATION USING THE GIS WEASEL

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GIS WEASEL Parameterization: 200+ strategies accessible Easily include custom techniques Exploit many sorts of information Produce maps and ASCII files of parameters Configure formulas Apply to highlight maps +

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MODEL RECIPE FILE PARAMETER ESTIMATION METHOD PARAMETER

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Multi-step Calibration

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Multi-step adjustment representation

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ANALYSIS and SUPPORT TOOLS Currently Available Statistical and Graphical Analyses Parameter Optimization Parameter Sensitivity Analysis Beta Testing Shuffle Complex Evolution Optimization Multi-Objective COMplex Evolution Algorithm (MOCOM) Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) Visualization

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Forecast Methodologies - Historic information as simple for the future Ensemble Streamflow Prediction (ESP) Synthetic time-arrangement Weather Generator - Atmospheric model yield Dynamical Downscaling Statistical Downscaling

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MMS Development is Accomplished Through Collaborative Multi-disciplinary Efforts

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Sleepers River, Vermont Trout Lake, Wisconsin Panola Mountain, Georgia Loch Vale, Colorado Luquillo, Puerto Rico USGS WATER, ENERGY, AND BIOGEOCHEMICAL BUDGETS (WEBB) PROGRAM

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WEBMOD PRMS National Weather Service - Hydro17 TOPMODEL

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Use Chemical and Isotopic Tracers to Evaluate Simulated Flow Paths and Residence Times Next step: Use tracers to oblige the hydrologic arrangements

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Coupled WEBMOD and PHREEQC

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Effects of Vegetation and Vegetation Change on Water and Energy Partitioning Natural Managed Satellite picture of the Rodeo and Chediski shoot before they converged into one discharge, in the long run copying approximately 470,000 sections of land Fool Creek Watershed, Fraser Experimental Forest, Colorado (714 sections of land) Issues: Process, Scale, Parameter Estimation

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Vegetation Management Model US Forest Service, Missoula, Mt Simulates vegetation examples and procedures accentuating the elements of scene level change. Produces troupe yield

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Land Use Climate CO 2 Human population Invasive species NMD BRD Flood & dry season impacts Vegetation change Wildland fire Grazing impacts Landslides Water quality Physical models Resource accessibility Public land administration Restoration arranges … BLM USFS GD WRD SIMPPLLE NPS CESU Integrating Science with Resource Management through Collaborative Approaches and Adaptive Modeling Systems Resource Management Science Synthesis Modeling Framework Development +

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Initial DSS Development Area USGS, NPS, USFS, BLM, BIA, CO State University, N AZ University

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Integrating Water-Resource and Socio-Economic Models Population and Demand Forecasts Water Markets (change in possession in interminability) Water Banking (rent choices over some timeframe) Issue: The better the expectation of the spatial and worldly dispersion of water, the better the business sectors can perform. This requires the full combination of physical-process and financial models to upgrade monetary and institutional examinations.

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Water Banking Adding Water Banking to a Water Resources Decision-Support System Hydromet Real-time atmosphere information nourish Hydrologic Database DMI RiverWare Reservoir and River System Operations Model DMI DMIs DMI Object User Interface for information representation and demonstrating Modular Modeling System Precipitation/Runoff Model (PRMS)

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MMS UNIVERSITY COLLABORATION University of Arizona NSF financed - Sustainability of semi-Arid Hydrology and Riparian Areas (SAHRA) University of Colorado NOAA subsidized - Coupling of hydrologic and environmental models to give short-to long haul figures University of Nevada Reno Desert Research Institute financed – Watershed displaying and coupled SW/GW demonstrating Colorado State University Interagency MOU financed – GeoLEM and Parameter estimation, enhancement, and affectability investigation instruments

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Working with the NRCS to fuse the USGS Modular Modeling System into the NRCS determining tool compartment

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Java Compiler XML Testing C++ Other… ModelCore ModelBuilder RZWQM PRMS Database Netbeans IDE, Sun Forte,… OMS Platform Integrated Framework Development Collaborative push to incorporate the Object Modeling System (OMS) and the Modular Modeling System (MMS) - ARS - USGS - NRCS - Friedrich Schiller University, Germany Branding

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Other Model Integration Approaches U.S. Bowls (EPA) FRAMES (DOE, NRC, DOD, EPA) DIAS (DOE) XMS (WMS, GMS, SMS, … - EMS Inc.) OMS (USDA) International HarmonIT (Europe) Catchment Modeling Toolkit (Australia)

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MMS SUMMARY Integrated device

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