The Future Joint Operating Environment JOE

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The Future Joint Operating Environment (JOE) USJFCOM J9 - Deep Futures Cleared For Public Release Administrative/Operational Use, 16 Nov 07. Different solicitations for this archive should be alluded to: Deep Futures/Futures Exploration Division Joint Futures Lab; U.S. Joint Forces Command 115 Lakeview Parkway, Suffolk, VA 23435-2697 Phone: 757-203-3340

Deep Futures gives a sound investigate the patterns molding the future working condition and distinguishes the military ramifications Futures Group – Deep Futures Objectives: Identify the rising dangers and chances of the future security condition Facilitate comprehension of these rising dangers and openings over the JCD&E endeavor Products: The Joint Operating Environment (JOE) record Trend papers Conference and uncommon review reports Activities: Research/Writing Conferences and Workshops Outreach Partners: TRADOC, JS J5, USAF A8X, USMC SVG and CETO, USCG Office of Strategic Analysis,… and developing

Deep Futures: Futures Enterprise Partners National Intelligence Council (NIC)/Director of National Intelligence (DNI) DoS and Joint Staff J5 (Project Horizon) OSD Plans and Policy Johns Hopkins Applied Physics Lab USMC Strategic Vision Group (SVG) and Center for Emerging Threats and Opportunities (CETO) Air Force Research Lab (AFRL) Development, Concepts, and Doctrine Center (DCDC) (UK) US Army Training and Doctrine Command (TRADOC) Naval War College (NWC) USCG Office of Strategic Analysis USAF A8X Chief of Naval Operations Strategic Studies Group (CNO SSG) National Research Labs (DARPA, ORNL, Sandia) Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments (CSBA) Eurasia Group USJFCOM Transformation Advisory Group (TAG) US European Command (EUCOM) Bundeswehr Transformation Center (GE)

The Joint Operating Environment Document depicts present and conceivable future patterns, conditions, factors, conditions and impacts that will influence how a Commander will sort out and utilize his strengths. Not proposed to depict particular ranges of operation, nor enemies, yet broad conditions that shape the earth of contention.

The JOE Document Chapter 1: Introduction Chapter 2: Trends in the Joint Operating Environment Human Geography Governance and Legitimacy Resources and Economics Science, Technology, and Engineering Chapter 3: Challenges Facing the Future Joint Force Enduring Challenges Emerging Challenges National Security Shocks Chapter 4: Implications for the Joint Force Terrain Base Knowledge Force Application Command Chapter 5: Conclusion

JOE Terminology Operating Environment: A general depiction of the essential elements of a the world's global framework. Basic factors : Define the qualities of a working situation. They are an arrangement of the most imperative constituent components of a vital domain. Patterns : Are the development of a variable after some time. Patterns report continuous changes to factors and consider projections of the qualities of a working domain at a future point in time. Stuns : Can hasten or result from patterns. Basic Variables: Define working situations. Contrasts in factors are an impression of aggregated patterns and stuns after some time. Military Implications: Describe how patterns impact the application and plan of military powers.

Human Geography Population Growth Age Distribution Gender Imbalance Climate Change Crime Culture Education Ethnicity Health Urbanization Migration Governance and Legitimacy The Powerful The Weak Legitimacy Failed or Failing States Transnationalism Regionalism Terrorism Alliances and Coalitions Resources and Economics Climatic Disruption Resource Competition Distribution of Wealth Global Trade Networks Information-Age Economics Economic Regionalism Global Labor Markets Science, Technology, and Engineering Biological Systems Machines and Computers Information, Knowledge, Communications Energy Weapons of Mass Effect Environmental Science Chapter 2: Trends

Wealth Distribution Gap Widening Within and crosswise over states Public Health is enhancing, yet… AIDS plague proceeds with Pandemic Influenza danger Migration Muslims to Europe Europeans to U.S? Cerebrum deplete from creating nations Crime Human carrying surpassing medication pirating as transnational wrongdoing Culture, ethnicity Religious philosophy and character governmental issues expanding Militant Islam Training, instruction Science, tech, building degrees going to remote nationals Human Geography

Middle East 3% Western Europe 5% Eastern Europe 7% Asia 56% Africa 13% Population and Demographics Our Hemisphere 13% ( US = 4%) 2 billion more individuals by 2025, 56% of worldwide populace will be in Asia 66% will live in urban regions along coastlines The populaces of created nations are maturing – quickly Age separate amongst created and creating countries will prompt to vast relocation of work constrain from creating to created

Population Pyramids – U.S. The resigned Cohort The blue collar Cohort The tutoring associate The Past The Present The Future

Population Pyramids – Developed Nations The resigned Cohort The working class Cohort The tutoring companion

Population Pyramids – Russia & China The resigned Cohort The blue collar Cohort The tutoring partner

Population Pyramids – India and Nigeria

Big urban communities getting greater—and poorer 66% of world in urban communities by 2030 2007: 3.2 billion individuals in urban communities - a number bigger than the whole worldwide populace of 1967 Urbanization

Climate Change

Resources and Economics: Scarcity and Stress Desertification and moving development groups stretch sustenance creation Substantial populaces confront water push

30% Economic Globalization will keep on being the overall pattern that shapes others. Inversion would have emotional outcomes Increasing availability and travel will even the odds Transformers win, those that slack may experience shakiness The ascent of new Asian Powers will re-arrange the world China as the 2 nd biggest economy – may pass EU in 2015, US by 2040 India as the 3 rd biggest economy – may pass EU by 2025 Percent of World Gross National Income ~by area 30% 2025 2006 North America North Asia EU Other 33% 19% 16% South Asia 11% 31% 13% 17%

Global Energy Stress Vastly expanded request as creating countries move to first world way of life Energy request will keep on shaping worldwide legislative issues

Global Energy Stress Energy request tracks with populace and monetary development Liquid fossil powers may crest before choices go ahead line Mismatch of free market activity may bring about deficiencies & financial stun, unsteadiness/state disappointment and incredible power rivalry may take after May likewise support advancement…

Science, Technology and Engineering The pace of progress is significantly quickening "We tend to overestimate here and now change, and disparage long haul transform" IT, Nano and Bio are blending Vast new perils (and openings) Vast enhancements in material prosperity adjusted against better approaches to murder and mistreat

Nano/Bio/Info Teleoperations Advanced Materials Cellulosic Ethanol Artificial Organs and Tissues Precision Biodefense Information Technology Man/Machine Computing Smart Dust/Networked Bacteria Every Soldier a Sensor/Every Sensor to the Soldier "Lifelogging" Soldier Augmentation Nanotechnology Biotechnology

Constrained U.S. Military Budgets Increasing qualifications apply continually expanding weight on safeguard spending

Trends Human Geography Aging Japan and European Union populaces; expanding social welfare costs; detachment of foreigners from society. Normal Resources Global vitality request expanding speedier than provisions. Expanding water push Science, Technology, and Engineering Increasing significance of ecological , bio-, data , and nano-innovation. Expanding level of political and social control over mechanical advancements U.S. remains the absolute most capable on-screen character financially, innovatively, militarily, yet others shutting the hole, or surpassing the U.S. in particular specialties. Factors Ability of EU and Japan to adjust work strengths, welfare frameworks and incorporate transient populaces Extent of political insecurity in vitality delivering nations and supply interruptions. Capacity to create and bring new sources into generation at sensible cost. Degree to which new advancements make or resolve issues for human culture. Capacity of U.S. logical and specialized innovative work to remain in front of potential enemy abilities Examples of Trends and Variables Unclassified

Trends Production and Exchange of Information, Knowledge, and Culture Global firms progressively encourage spread of new advances. Political Islam proceeds as a powerful compel. Financial aspects Globalization to a great extent irreversible, yet progressively less Westernized. World economy developing and considerably bigger. Ascent of Asia and approach of conceivable new financial center weights. Universal Actors Capabilities and impact of non-state on-screen characters developing. Factors Extent to which availability challenges governments. Effect of religiosity on solidarity of states and potential for strife; development of jihadist belief system. Degree to which globalization of exchange and fund spreads riches in slacking economies Level that Asian nations set new principles of the diversion; Level of riches and influence of China and India. Degree of crevices amongst "haves" and "the less wealthy"; ability to oversee or contain budgetary emergencies. Readiness and capacity of states and worldwide organizations to suit non-state performing artists. Cases of Trends and Variables (cont)