The Demand Forecast and Conservation Analysis Interface

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2. Why Interface Matters?. Over estimation of preservation potentialCapturing legitimate connection between interest figure and protection resourceCapturing Price driven Conservation EffectsCapturing Take-back impacts. 3. Council\'s Power Planning Process. Monetary

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The Demand Forecast and Conservation Analysis Interface May 16 2008 PNREC Massoud Jourabchi & Tom Eckman

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Why Interface Matters? Over estimation of protection potential Capturing appropriate cooperation between request conjecture and preservation asset Capturing Price driven Conservation Effects Capturing Take-back impacts 2

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Demand Forecasting System Residential Commercial Industrial Irrigation Fuel Price Forecasts Total Electricity Use Conservation Programs and Costs Electricity Price Supply - Demand Balance Generating Resources and Costs Resource Supply (Cost and Amount) Council's Power Planning Process Economic & Demographic Forecasts 3

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Tracking Energy Demand 4

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Major Factors Influencing Demand Long-term variables Economic Activity Energy Prices Technology decisions Socio-financial changes Short-term components Weather 5

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Basic Building Blocks of long haul Forecasting Model For each enduse in every area utilization is resolved partially by: Number of Units (A) Fuel proficiency decisions (B) Fuel decision (C) Energy use by an enduse = A * B * C 6

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Number of Units (A) Driven by the monetary figure Number of Existing home Number of New Homes ( Single, Multi, Manuf.) Square film of existing business structures Square film of new advertisement structures Level of creation from modern, farming and mining firms Source of data Review handle: by State market analysts and Demand Forecasting Advisory Committee 7

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Fuel Efficiency Choices (B) Efficiency/capital cost exchange off. Exchange off between high in advance expenses and high working expense. Wellspring of data: Various sources and studies (LBL, DOE,… ) Review prepare : Demand Forecast Advisory Group and In-house 8

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Residential Hot Water Heating Efficiency Curve Baseline 2.0 GPM Showerhead Tank Insulation Energy Star Clothes Washer (MEF 1.8) Heat Pump Water Heater Energy Star Dishwasher (EF65) Wastewater Heat Recovery Energy Star Clothes Washer (MEF 2.0) Energy Star Dishwasher (EF68) 9

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Fuel Choice (C) Customer exchanging off one fuel for another on the premise of relative cost of energizes, components considered include: Capital Cost Operation and upkeep cost Non-value elements, for example, client inclination for one fuel over another Source of Information: EIA at Historic fuel costs, Utility, NEEA Surveys of client decisions Calibration of real request 1985-2005 Review handle: Demand Forecast Advisory Group 10

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$/kWh $/therm Therms/gallon high temp water kWh/gallon boiling hot water Gallons every day Hot Water Gallons every day Hot Water Number of Gas Water Heaters Number of Electric Water Heaters 11

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Illustrative Example Demand from Water Heating in New Homes Electric water warmers request in new homes is computed as: (A) Number of new single family homes: 20,000/yr (B) Electricity Efficiency: 0.90 Energy Factor = 3600 kWh/yr (c) Market share of electric water radiators: 69% Electricity Demand from New water warmers in new homes 20,000*3600*.69 ~ 49,680 MWH ~ 5.67 MWa Similar approach is utilized for existing homes. Existing homes are followed after some time and the vitality utilize is diminished every year in view of the physical existence of the gadget (i.e., as existing units fall flat, they are supplanted with units meeting government least proficiency principles). 12

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How Conservation Supply Curve for Water Heating is Created The three elements (A, B and C) are given to Procost show Conservation supply bend estimation begins from the base utilize and moves along the effectiveness cost exchange off bend. Protection potential for different focuses along the bend are assessed in a comparative mold to the determined request computations. 13

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Residential Hot Water Heating Dwelling Unit Supply Curve Wastewater Heat Recovery Energy Star Clothes Washer (MEF 2.0) Energy Star Dishwasher (EF68) Energy Star Dishwasher (EF 65) Heat Pump Water Heater Energy Star Clothes Washer (MEF 1.8) Tank Insulation 2.0 GPM Showerhead Cost-Effectiveness Limit 14

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Demand Forecast, Conservation supply & Resource Optimization Frozen-proficiency Forecast and the Conservation supply bends reliable with the conjecture is given to Portfolio display In the Portfolio demonstrate, stack figure is subjected to 750 distinct prospects and ideal level of protection procurement and in addition other asset alternatives is resolved. The ideal protection level is bolstered back to the request gauge display another Sales figure reflecting effect of preservation targets and expenses is created. 15

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Demand figure and Conservation Interface Demand Forecast Price impact Frozen productivity Sales Conservation Potential Assessment Model Frozen Eff. Use & units Cost-powerful Cons. Solidified Eff. Stack Conservation Supply Curves Optimum Conservation Targets Resource Portfolio Optimization Model Other Supply Resource Options 16