The Asian Money related Emergencies: A Near Study

2048 days ago, 669 views
PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Oct seventeenth 1997, on a green in Taipei, a gathering of specialists were playing a round of golf. ... Chicago Bulls, FL Marlins, Denver Broncos, Titanic, Backstreet Boys ...

Presentation Transcript

Slide 1

´╗┐The Asian Financial Crises: A Comparative Study Thailand, South Korea, and Japan

Slide 2

I will start with a genuine story. Oct 17 th 1997, on a fairway in Taipei, a gathering of businesspeople were playing a round of golf. Among them, were the legislative leader of Taiwan's Central Bank, Mr. Hsu, and the legislative leader of Korea's Central Bank, Mr. Lee. Amid the amusement, Lee, the Korean investor, saw Hsu, the Taiwanese financier, were every now and again hindered by his mobile phone. When he replied, he talked in hash and fomented tone in Chinese. Lee naturally felt something was going on. Something significant. In any case, what is it?

Slide 3

The Asian Financial Crisis

Slide 4

He discovered it out the following day: Taiwan simply downgraded its coin while they hit the fairway. This move not just brought down Taiwan's fare cost and made the Korean fare more costly, however left the Korean coin, the won, presented to theoretical assaults. Right then and there, Lee felt like the last gazelle in the crowd with a cheetah on their tails. Class, welcome to the Asian Financial Crisis!

Slide 5

Introduction About This Presentation Abbreviations/acronyms: AFC, Korea Presenters Countries Selected for Comparison and Why Thailand: the first to fall (Dan) South Korea: why me? (Johnny) Japan: the alpha goose (Shin)

Slide 6

This is presentation is a near investigation of 3 Asian nations amid the emergency. Above all else, let me clear up a few contractions and acronyms we are to use amid the presentation: AFC remains for Asian Financial Crisis We may utilize Korea and South Korea reciprocally amid the presentation.

Slide 7

Here are the moderators: My name is Bing, and this is Dan, Shin and Johnny. For this presentation we picked 3 Asian nations. They are: Thailand, South Korea and Japan. Thailand was the first to fall amid AFC. So its manifestations and destiny is to some degree characteristic of the emergency all in all.

Slide 8

South Korea had been an understudy of Japan's prosperity. It had successive, quickly developing economy until the eve of AFC. After AFC it recouped rapidly and reimbursed the enormous IMF credit in under 4 years. So how is a solid economy the Korea's doing in AFC? Japan is chosen since it was one of the economies survived the AFC. So it is intriguing for us to discover why.

Slide 9

Introduction When July 1997 to Feb 1998 What happened around us? Chicago Bulls, FL Marlins, Denver Broncos, Titanic, Backstreet Boys Which Countries Almost all Asia-Pacific nations, less Japan, Mainland China, Taiwan

Slide 10

AFC endured just around 8 month. In any case, amid that 8-month, more than 20 million individuals lost their occupations. Those still had their employments took a twofold digit pay cut by and large . Imaging yourself graduating that year!

Slide 11

As sudden as AFC seemed to be, and as traumatic as it might have been, it didn't happen in vacuum, here is some verifiable point of view:

Slide 12

Introduction Historical Context Prior Crisis: Mexico peso 1994-5, European Monetary System 1992 "The East Asia Miracle" In connection to Globalization

Slide 13

Prior to AFC, there had been a couple of other late money related emergency. All were exceptionally ruinous to the economies influenced. Asia-Pacific economies had been getting a charge out of decade since a long time ago supported development, which prompted to noteworthy change of general welfare. This feeling of accomplishment assumed a critical part in the occasions prompting to, amid and after AFC. For instance, as right on time as 1995, pundits have highlighted some auxiliary insufficiencies in South Korea's economy. Be that as it may, no one focused, on the grounds that, as one IMF official yielded, "it is difficult to contend with achievement."

Slide 14

Compared to different districts on the planet, Asia-Pacific was, and still is, an excellent model of grasping globalization. It is viewed as the trophy of open economy and worldwide mix. In any case, after the AFC, especially in the wake of seeing the obliteration it exited afterward, sentiments moved. In the long run, AFC got to be one of the arousing sobs for the counter globalization development. The same number of us saw amid the 1999 WTO challenges couple of ways out down I-5

Slide 15

Before we proceed onward, I feel it is critical to let you know this. AFC is an exceptionally confused theme. In the brief timeframe we have, we will just concentrate on a portion of the issues that are identified with this class however we solid urge you to take in more about this occasion outside of the class. With this being said, we will begin our nation thinks about.

Slide 16

What We Have Learned In the Wake of AFC National Economy National Finance General Welfare Socio-Political World Economy

Slide 17

Now we have heard the stories from the 3 distinct nations, how about we attempt to condense what we have realized. Clearly, any money related emergency is damaging. AFC is the same. Here are a few diagrams to demonstrate macroeconomic estimation changes, assembled by inner and outer parities:

Slide 22

Other than those unmistakable numbers, how about we not overlook there are numerous impalpable misfortunes: For instance, the social impact of high unemployment rate, open medicinal services and instruction endured immensely. Social gatherings that are never-endingly on the edge of financial exercises: seniors, poor people, the incompetent faired the most exceedingly awful. Furthermore, the general decay of total request created item cost to drop. It resemble an infection that spread the world over. Economies that depends intensely on sending out regular assets were all harmed, e.g. Russia and later, Argentina.

Slide 23

What We Have Learned The Complexity and Diversity of AFC: Do not trust "That is why"s Liquidity Over-spending/getting Poor Management IMF and the Washington Consensus Political Factors

Slide 24

I get a kick out of the chance to push again that AFC is a muddled theme. In spite of the fact that the indications were comparable among nations influenced, the causes fluctuated an incredible arrangement. Unless you are a lawmaker, don't just say, "That is the reason" about AFC. Much the same as we are presented to a wide range of infections exceptionally day yet we don't get wiped out unless everything turned out against us: somebody who is near you pass on to you an infection that you never had on a day that you were truly drained.

Slide 25

In the AFC case, we have recognized a few variables however can't say AFC was brought about by only one of them. For instance, is liquidity or save the cause? We would contend it is the manifestation, however not the cause. So what brought on the liquidity issue? Was is overspending? Not precisely, on account of Thailand and Korea, government shortfall were well inside 5% confine when they occurred. The majority of the Asian countries had high reserve funds rate as well.

Slide 26

If not over-spending, could be imprudent spending? For instance, obtained an excessive amount of transient credits? For Korea's situation, that gives off an impression of being the situation, given how quick the nation reimbursed its IMF advance. Nonetheless, in Thailand, Indonesia and Malaysia, the recuperations were moderate and difficult. This can't be clarified by "shy of-money" as it were.

Slide 27

So were the economies influenced by AFC ineffectively overseen? There is positively a ton truth to that. For instance, it is generally acknowledged that AFC economies depend too vigorously on banks alone. Monetary market needs straightforwardness and freedom. Et cetera. In any case, there are exemptions to this speculation. For instance, Japanese economy has comparative lacks, yet it was not as tremendously influenced. The U.S., the as far as anyone knows display economy of the world, nearly had its very own FC a year after AFC.

Slide 28

You may likewise hear the expression "Washington Consensus" amid AFC examinations. The term infers that the U.S. utilized IMF to exploit the FC in Asia for its own particular advantage. There is no motivation to trust that the U.S. acted outside of its expressed aims. It has enormous influence however not immediate control over IMF. What IMF neglected to do amid AFC is demonstrative of the impediments of macroeconomics as a science. In any case what political elements might be included, we need to acknowledge the introduce that AFC was in its center a monetary undertaking.

Slide 29

What We Have Learned How to Prevent Future FC: Is it conceivable? A few tips from AFC: Listen to the Devil Too Many Banks? Is Japan the Model to Follow?

Slide 30

So what would we be able to do to keep the following Financial Crisis? Then again is that even conceivable? We ought not quit attempting. Some particular lessons we have gained from AFC are, Listen to the Devil. The Devil here are the money examiners. There is a more pleasant term for them: full scale fence investments. They resemble PC programmers: they enhance our lives perversy.

Slide 31

The other thing to keep an eye out for is the wellbeing of residential capital market. For rising economies, divided monetary market represents an intense issue. On account of South Korea, the greater part of the fleeting advances were obtained by banks themselves. So was the situation in Thailand. Thus, numerous banks fizzled amid AFC. Japan's managing an account framework had comparable lacks. On account of its extensive economy and considerable remote stores, it survived AFC while littler economies did not.

Slide 32

What We Have Learned The Tools We Have: Monetary Policy FOREX Administrative Signaling

Slide 33

Financial emergency, particularly those created by ruthless assaults, are hard to stop once it began. Amid AFC, Hong Kong could shield its money. Thailand nearly succeeded yet the levee broke finally. Among the sort of devices recorded, we are shocked to locate the experimental proof proposes money control is a powerful instrument to battle assaults. In any case, it is flawed as a long haul arrangement.

Slide 34

Q &A Opinion Poll

Slide 35

Opinion Poll China: the Next FC Victim? Opportunity and Crisis: Large economy Internal and outer parities FOREX control Banking framework, money related market all in all

Slide 36

Opinion Poll Financial Crisis to Happen in China? Not likely Very likely: in 5 years Probably: