Talks on Operational Art

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Referencing Combat Planning Models: Sun-Tzu. Sun-Tzu\'s computations:

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Discourses on Operational Art The Bridge between Deterministic Combat Analysis and the genuine Complex Adaptive System known as War

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Referencing Combat Planning Models: Sun-Tzu Sun-Tzu's computations: "With respect to military strategies: the first is named estimation: the second estimation [of forces]; the third, count [of quantities of men]; the fourth, weighing [relative strength]; and the fifth, triumph. "Territory brings forth estimation; estimation creates the estimation [of forces]. Estimation [of forces] gives rise ascertaining [the quantities of men]. Computing [the quantities of men] offers ascend to weighing [relative strength]. Measuring [strength] brings forth triumph." Kline's Read: Distance + Force Structure + Logistics Capability + Time = Combat Potential at target Combat Potential versus Enemy Combat potential correlation at goal creates game-plans for triumph!

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Sun-Tzu's further Models Sun-Tzu's methodology after computations: "as a rule, the technique for utilizing the military is this: If your quality is ten circumstances theirs, encompass them; if five, then assault them; assuming twofold, then separation your powers." Where do you think he concocted this run the show? Have we comparative dependable guidelines? Where did we concoct them?

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Some Historical Examples of Combat Planning Models Sun-Tzu, Clausewitz, Jomini, and other traditional scholars talk about numbers in fighting from their key works. In like manner, Lanchester and Hughes (and numerous others) made conditions to portray whittling down and maritime fighting individually. Next slide highlights cases utilized as a part of fighting arranging or execution.

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Some Historical Examples of Analysis in Warfare Admiral Doenitz "Skirmish of Atlantic" winning criteria: 600K – 800K tonnage sunk Analytical Derivation War Plan Orange Wargaming Battle of Atlantic (Birth of Ops Research) Search Theory Battle of Bismark Sea (WWII) Game Theory Vietnam "Body Count" Measure of Effectiveness Gone Bad? Vietnam Air-to-Air Combat Analysis Data Analysis Gulf War, Kosovo, and OIF Effects of Strikes Network Analysis and Scheduling Current OPLANS?

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Warfare Analysis: Tidy Statements about Untidy Phenomena such a large number of evaluations and suppositions : Weapon exactness and adequacy Sensor viability Aircraft accessibility, stack limit, pivot times, extend Enemy Capabilities Then we fabricate "Straightforward" and misleadingly slick models trying to: Show an unmistakable circumstances and end results By very much characterized inputs that cover all the crucial factors! NOT a designing methodology ! Muddled issues, "grimy information", complex exercises, different approaches for both sides, misty outcomes Best: Hope to infer net level examples and distinguish what is vital. DOES NOT PREDICT OUTCOMES!

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Inputs + Process Results Models White Papers: Logical and in view of diagnostic calculations Mathematical Statements and Applied Math: Optimization Search Equations Statistics and Probability Data Analysis "Shut" Simulation War Game ("Manned" Simulation) Field Experiments Each has qualities and shortcomings relying upon the issue!

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Does it help the Decision Maker? Does it help evaluate chance? "Primary concern" of Warfare Analysis

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But Clausewitz says: "… Absolute, purported scientific components never locate a firm premise in military estimations… In the entire scope of human exercises, war most nearly looks like a round of cards… the specialty of war manages living and with good powers. Subsequently, it can't achieve the supreme, or sureness; it should dependably leave an edge for instability, in the best things as much as in the littlest." On War, p. 86 Or… War is Complex, Adaptive, and a System… of Opposing different Systems of Systems!

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Complex Adaptive Systems (CAS) characterized "comprising of numerous nonlinearly connecting components which can adjust their dynamical conduct to outer impacts… " Heinz Georg Schuster "A CAS carries on/advances as per three key standards: request is rising instead of foreordained, the framework's history is irreversible, and the framework's future is frequently eccentric… " Kevin Dooley

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And Actual War is: A Human attempt including: restricting wills with fluctuating and changing targets at different collaborating key, operational, and strategic levels; utilizing needy and comprehensive mechanical, specialized, human and natural frameworks; and whose "state" is transiently needy. On the other hand… War is Complex, Adaptive, and a System… of Opposing different Systems of Systems!

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So, how do utilize the Complex Adaptive System idea of War? " Instead of arranging an activity ahead of time we indicate requirements and afterward permit the neighborhood conditions at an opportunity to decide how the assignment will be finished. This is the pith of appropriated frameworks, each errand reacts to the neighborhood condition continuously, the connections between the framework and condition permit a developing answer for emerge. Power is confined, not concentrated and this permits quick reactions to unforeseeable occasions, an adaptability that evacuates the modify costs characteristic in more static arrangements. This is an open, parallel method of operation , where various choices can be attempted all the while , contrasted with the shut, serial method of traditional administration where choices move straightly here and there settled charge chains." Chris Lucas

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Sounds like a Conflict Here! "Goodness so 20 th - Century" Combat Analysis VS The "New Science" Concept of War as a Complex Adaptive System Na… .What is required is somewhat Operational Art! After a break?

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Operational Art "The work of military powers to accomplish key or potentially operational target through the plan, association, combination, and lead of theater procedures, crusades, real operations, and definitive fight. Operational craftsmanship interprets soldier system and theater plan into operational outline and eventually, strategic activity by coordinating the key exercises of all levels of war inside a theater. " Joint Pub 1-02

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Elements of Operational Art Synergy, concurrence and profundity, reckoning, adjust, use, timing and rhythm, operational reach and approach, strengths and capacities, orchestrating operations, focuses of gravity, Direct versus circuitous approach, definitive focuses, zenith, lastly,… … .. end. Joint Pub 3-0

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OR… … . The Commander utilizes Operational Art to " shape introductory conditions " (or change conditions amid execution) to make a situation that permits the " rising conduct " of the country's key, operational, or potentially strategic objectives from the complex versatile arrangement of contradicting arrangement of frameworks known as war. The Commander utilizes every one of the components of Operational craftsmanship to build up the alluring conditions some time recently, amid, and after battle.

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Nice Concept: But exactly how the hell do we ID the right "beginning conditions" amid our arranging procedure?

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Recall from Warfare Analysis Slides: we assemble "Straightforward" and misleadingly flawless models trying to: Show a reasonable circumstances and end results By very much characterized inputs that cover all the essential factors! NOT a building approach ! Muddled issues, "grimy information", complex exercises, numerous blueprints for both sides, hazy outcomes Best: Hope to infer net level examples and recognize what is critical. We utilize "goodness so 20 th Century Warfare Analysis" to help characterize IMPORTANT "starting conditions". Are the dependably the "right" ones? No: or else war would be unsurprising and not a Complex Adaptive System!

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A Picture Shore of: Joint Planning Process Warfare Analysis Commander's Estimates Technical Rational Thought Bridge of Operational Art Setting Conditions River of Reality Shore of War: Complex, Adaptive, and Systems of Opposing Systems

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An Example Can we use unrivaled data frameworks and overwhelm air/sea capacities to apply conveyed ground strengths at definitive brings up out the ground fight space with a charge structure and standards of engagement structure permitting neighborhood activity to acknowledge: Accelerated Cumulative Warfare!

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Accelerated Cumulative Warfare Cumulative Warfare + Rapid Execution empowered by Information strength, accuracy weapons, predominant Maneuver and centered coordinations "I now surmise that the data administration unrest has presumably made combined procedures all the more promptly subject to examination in arranging before occasions, in doing those arrangements, and in the review investigation of what has officially occurred." Military Strategy : Wylie Special Ops Strategies? Is it conceivable?

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And the Finish: We perceive the Complex Adaptive Systems nature of war with its non-direct, flighty, powerful, intelligent nature and affectability to conditions… We utilize Warfare Analysis to cause distinguish critical conditions to set to build desires of getting a sought goal… We utilize Operational Art to Set those Conditions…