Seaside Vulnerability to Climate Change by David A.Y. Smith Warner International

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Slide 1

Beach front Vulnerability to Climate Change by David A.Y. Smith Warner International

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Profile of the Caribbean and Coastal Areas Greater Antilles/Lesser Antilles – in light of area and topographical starting point All are islands with high coastline to zone proportions, and are in this manner especially defenseless against beach front risks. Varying levels of hazard over the locale

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Coastal Hazards in the Caribbean Over 8,000 lives lost in the Caribbean over recent years because of common calamities. More prominent Antilles (Cuba, Jamaica, Hispañola, Puerto Rico) Hurricanes Floods Earthquakes Tsunami Lesser Antilles (St. Maarten to Trinidad) Hurricanes Volcanic Eruptions (Ash aftermath) Earthquakes Tsunami

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Damage from Hurricanes Occurs basically from: Hurricane waves; Beach scour and; Storm surge.

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Spatial Distribution of Hurricanes in the Region

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Hurricane Waves Deep water waves coming about because of tropical storms can be exceptionally harming. Appraisals of extraordinary (i.e. outline) wave statures made all through the area are abridged after:

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Hurricane Waves (cont'd) These profound water waves change in tallness as they go into shallower water. Changes result from cooperations between the waves and the seabed At the shoreline, they can be exceptionally harming, breaking out foundation and dissolving shorelines.

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Beach Scour In a tempest, high wave vitality frequently brings about extreme disintegration of the shoreline and additionally shoreline. Disintegration may reach up to 20-30m inland, and can absolutely wipe out shoreline zones and contiguous foundation.

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Beach Scour (cont'd) Erosion is exacerbated where there are structures (i.e. vertical dividers) in the wave keep running up zone. Shore security techniques must be deliberately planned so as not to contrarily affect adjoining shoreline zones.

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Components of Storm Surge

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Components of Storm Surge

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Examples of Storm Surge High tempest waves, Cayman, Hurricane Ivan Storm Surge, Roseau, Dominica, Hurricane Lenny

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Impact of Water Level Changes Based on UN-IPCC perceptions and Circulation Model yields, rates of ocean level ascent in the Caribbean will be 5mm/year for next 100 years; Rate will nor be uniform nor steady because of site-particular reasons (e.g. crustal development as well as submergence); This rate is 2 times higher than rate for as far back as 100 years; Low-lying shorelines, patios and fields will be more defenseless against tempest occasions as an aftereffect of this ascent.

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Kingston Vulnerability Source: NEPA

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Some Issues for Concern Large rate of Jamaica's populace (approx. 25%) and basic foundation is thought close to the coastline. There is some proof, when the previous 115 years of typhoon information is analyzed, that we are in a cycle with an expanding number of tempests.

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Data Collection/Gaps Water levels have been gathered under the aegis of the OAS at various areas over the Caribbean. A significant number of these stations have fallen into dilapidation and have not been kept up. Long haul records of water levels must be gathered in the event that we are to evaluate our own levels of hazard and helplessness to ocean level ascent. What are the present arrangements to begin or standard information gathering?

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Data Collection/Gaps (cont'd) What are the rates of growth or disintegration at our shorelines in Jamaica? A program of shoreline profile observing of shorelines as well as shorelines at key focuses around the shoreline of Jamaica would help with distinguishing an issue (or not). Given the significance of the tourism part to our national economy, observing of shoreline change is required. Once more, what are the present arrangements to initiate or standard information accumulation?

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Tsunami: another wellspring of hazard More an issue in the Lesser Antilles Caused by sea focused tremors, or volcanic ejections. Most serious hazard in a matter of seconds postured by "Kick them Jenny" SeaBeam picture of Kick them Jenny developed from estimations taken from the NOAA Research Vessel Ronald H. Cocoa on March 12 2002.

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Tsunamis in the Caribbean: Historical Account Dates and Locations of Tsunami