Prologue to System Dynamics

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Prologue to System Dynamics Tools for overseeing arrangement resistance and unintended outcomes Michael L. Deaton – Univ of Pitt Environmental/Health Summit, 2007

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System Dynamics? Reproduction based Objectives Understand how tricky results create after some time Evaluate strategies for influencing those results Michael L. Deaton – Univ of Pitt Environmental/Health Summit, 2007

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"All choices are gone up against the premise of models… The question is not to utilize or overlook models. The question is just a decision among option models. … " Jay W. Forrester. Strange Behavior of Social Systems. Declaration before U.S. Congress, October, 1970 Michael L. Deaton – Univ of Pitt Environmental/Health Summit, 2007

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The Modeler's Dilemma That's something else we've gained from your country," said Mein Herr, "delineate. Be that as it may, we've conveyed it much more remote than you. What do you consider the biggest guide that would truly be helpful?" "Around six inches to the mile." "Just around six inches!" shouted Mein Herr. "We soon got to six yards to the mile. At that point we attempted a hundred yards to the mile. And after that came the most terrific thought of all! We really made a guide of the nation on a size of a mile to the mile!" "Have you utilized it much?" I asked. "It has never been spread out yet," said Mein Herr. "The ranchers questioned: they said it would cover the entire nation, and close out the daylight! So now we utilize the nation itself, as its own guide, and I guarantee you it does almost also." Lewis Carroll (1893) – Sylvie and Bruno Concluded Michael L. Deaton – Univ of Pitt Environmental/Health Summit, 2007

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System Dynamics Uses in Decision Making Exposing and testing mental models that shape arrangement Looking for unintended outcomes of strategy activities Evaluating dynamic theories for comprehension risky framework conduct Facilitating bunch figuring out how to comprehend framework conduct Michael L. Deaton – Univ of Pitt Environmental/Health Summit, 2007

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Today's Discussion Managing Complex Systems: Mental models and unintended outcomes System Dynamics Intro Example applications Reflections on the part of SD in Health  Environment concentrates on Michael L. Deaton – Univ of Pitt Environmental/Health Summit, 2007

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Managing Complexity Arnie Levin, New Yorker, December 27, 1976 Michael L. Deaton – Univ of Pitt Environmental/Health Summit, 2007

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Managing Complexity Arnie Levin, New Yorker, December 27, 1976 Michael L. Deaton – Univ of Pitt Environmental/Health Summit, 2007

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Complexity & Unintended Consequences Arnie Levin, New Yorker, December 27, 1976 Michael L. Deaton – Univ of Pitt Environmental/Health Summit, 2007

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Basic Problem Solving Model Sterman, Business Dynamics Michael L. Deaton – Univ of Pitt Environmental/Health Summit, 2007

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Basic Problem Solving Model Sterman, Business Dynamics Michael L. Deaton – Univ of Pitt Environmental/Health Summit, 2007

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Bad Luck? Sterman, Business Dynamics Michael L. Deaton – Univ of Pitt Environmental/Health Summit, 2007

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Bad Luck? Sterman, Business Dynamics Michael L. Deaton – Univ of Pitt Environmental/Health Summit, 2007

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Complexity Beneath the Surface Sterman, Business Dynamics Michael L. Deaton – Univ of Pitt Environmental/Health Summit, 2007

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The mental model Example: Wildfire Suppression Michael L. Deaton – Univ of Pitt Environmental/Health Summit, 2007

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Michael L. Deaton – Univ of Pitt Environmental/Health Summit, 2007

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Michael L. Deaton – Univ of Pitt Environmental/Health Summit, 2007

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Side Effect? Michael L. Deaton – Univ of Pitt Environmental/Health Summit, 2007

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A More Complete Mental Model! Postpone Michael L. Deaton – Univ of Pitt Environmental/Health Summit, 2007

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Unintended Consequences of Policy in Dynamic Systems Antibiotics Road upgrades War on medications Flood control Economic development and joy Michael L. Deaton – Univ of Pitt Environmental/Health Summit, 2007

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Formularies Michael L. Deaton – Univ of Pitt Environmental/Health Summit, 2007

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Formularies Michael L. Deaton – Univ of Pitt Environmental/Health Summit, 2007

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Formularies Michael L. Deaton – Univ of Pitt Environmental/Health Summit, 2007

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Formularies Michael L. Deaton – Univ of Pitt Environmental/Health Summit, 2007

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Formularies Michael L. Deaton – Univ of Pitt Environmental/Health Summit, 2007

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Formularies Sterman http://videocast.nih.gov/Summary.asp?file=13712 Horn, et al. Am. J. Manag Care , 1996; 2(3):253-264 Michael L. Deaton – Univ of Pitt Environmental/Health Summit, 2007

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Our Mental Models Static One-way cause-impact Single-cause introduction Narrow limits Short time skylines Linear The System Dynamic; Adaptive Governed by Feedback Multiple on-screen characters with contending objectives Tightly-coupled over different scales Delays betw activity & impact Nonlinear Why Unintended Consequences? We gain best from our experience, however we never specifically encounter the outcomes of huge numbers of our most imperative choices Peter Senge, The Fifth Discipline Michael L. Deaton – Univ of Pitt Environmental/Health Summit, 2007

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System Dynamics Intro Key Features Stocks (gatherers) Flows (rates at which stocks change) Ancillary factors influencing the streams Causal or Information Links Feedback Delay progression Michael L. Deaton – Univ of Pitt Environmental/Health Summit, 2007

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Stocks, Flows, and Causal/Information Links Michael L. Deaton – Univ of Pitt Environmental/Health Summit, 2007

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Stocks and Flows Keys to element conduct Michael L. Deaton – Univ of Pitt Environmental/Health Summit, 2007

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Michael L. Deaton – Univ of Pitt Environmental/Health Summit, 2007

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Baseline case Higher Contact Rate Shorter Recovery Time Bathtub Dynamics of Stocks and Flows Michael L. Deaton – Univ of Pitt Environmental/Health Summit, 2007

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Feedback Michael L. Deaton – Univ of Pitt Environmental/Health Summit, 2007

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Domination by Balancing criticism Domination by Reinforcing input Dueling Feedback Loops Dynamic Loop Dominance Michael L. Deaton – Univ of Pitt Environmental/Health Summit, 2007

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"Almost Everything is Endogenous" Look for Feedback! Michael L. Deaton – Univ of Pitt Environmental/Health Summit, 2007

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"About Everything is Endogenous" Michael L. Deaton – Univ of Pitt Environmental/Health Summit, 2007

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Without With Effects of Social Distancing Balancing Feedback Michael L. Deaton – Univ of Pitt Environmental/Health Summit, 2007

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Delay Dynamics of Stocks and Flows Human populace Pollution transport in water supply Michael L. Deaton – Univ of Pitt Environmental/Health Summit, 2007

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Delay Dynamics of Stocks and Flows Human populace Pollution transport in water supply Michael L. Deaton – Univ of Pitt Environmental/Health Summit, 2007

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Michael L. Deaton – Univ of Pitt Environmental/Health Summit, 2007

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Pollution in the landfill Rate of contamination into the landfill Disease Incidence rate in the populace Stocks and Flows - Delay Dynamics Michael L. Deaton – Univ of Pitt Environmental/Health Summit, 2007

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Disease occurrence In groundwater In the landfill In drinking water Pollution rate Michael L. Deaton – Univ of Pitt Environmental/Health Summit, 2007

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The Long-Term Perspective Michael L. Deaton – Univ of Pitt Environmental/Health Summit, 2007

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Some Example SD Applications Energy Policy IDEAS – "Incorporated Dynamic Energy Analysis Simulation" Now kept up and utilized for DOE by Applied Energy Services, Arlington, VA Policy alternatives for alleviating nursery gas discharges Includes industry, transportation, utilities sectors,etc FREE (Feedback Rich Energy Economy display) Tom Fiddaman, MIT, 1997 Feedback structure between vitality economy and worldwide atmosphere Numerous models now utilized or being worked on NREL – Biomass Scenario Model BIGS – Biodiesel Industry Growth Simulator (Bantz/Deaton, 2007) and so forth Michael L. Deaton – Univ of Pitt Environmental/Health Summit, 2007

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Biodiesel Industry Growth Model Overview Michael L. Deaton – Univ of Pitt Environmental/Health Summit, 2007

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BIGS Model Overview of Stock and Flow Structure Bantz (2007) Michael L. Deaton – Univ of Pitt Environmental/Health Summit, 2007

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User Interface – BIGS Model Bantz (2007) Michael L. Deaton – Univ of Pitt Environmental/Health Summit, 2007

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Example SD Applications Health and Health Systems … HIV/AIDS – Consequences of exceedingly dynamic antiretroviral treatment (Dangerfield, et al. Sys. Dyn. Rev, 17:2 , 2001.) Understanding Diabetes Population Dynamics … (Jones, et al ( Am. J. Bar Hlth , 96:3, 2006) Background in System Dynamics Simulation Modeling With a Summary of Major Public Health Studies (Milstein, B., and J. B. Homer, CDC Syndemics Prevention Network, 2006). Incorporates a list of sources of numerous utilizations of SD to wellbeing strategy . www.cdc.gov/syndemics Building people group accord for savvy endless malady mind (Homer, et al, Sys. Dyn. Rev. 20:3 , 2004) Michael L. Deaton – Univ of Pitt Environmental/Health Summit, 2007

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"Seeking after Perfection" (P2) Whatcom County, WA Chronic Disease Care Issues Poor participation among associations Poor patient care Lack of concentrate on interminable care Chronically sick patients convey the weight of a deficient medicinal services framework Goal "Make a group based arrangement of ceaseless care that is quiet focused,

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