Pandemic Influenza: How debilitated may we be October 12, 2006

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Monday, August 28, 2006. It\'s the first day of direction on grounds. Tracy, a second year pre-med understudy, is catching a chilly however feels all around ok to go to every one of her classes. She lives in an understudy center where she works in the kitchen. On Thursdays she volunteers at the Health Center; this week she administered to a Chinese-talking persistent with a

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Pandemic Influenza: How wiped out might we be? October 12, 2006 Wayne D. Williams Director of Logistics Health Incorporated

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2 Monday, August 28, 2006 It's the main day of guideline on grounds. Tracy, a 2 nd year pre-med understudy, is catching an icy yet feels alright to go to every one of her classes. She lives in an understudy community where she works in the kitchen. On Thursdays she volunteers at the Health Center; this week she administered to a Chinese-talking quiet with an "asthma assault."

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3 Tuesday, August 29, 2006 Tracy builds up a poor quality fever, a dry hack, and free stools. She chooses she has the "stomach influenza" and assumes control over-the-counter solutions to treat her manifestations. She goes to her swarmed classes that day and has an industrious irritating hack. That night subsequent to planning supper for the community she is excessively drained, making it impossible to contemplate and goes specifically to bed. She awakens with chills, soaked in sweat, and with body hurts. She chooses to hold up a couple of more hours until morning before looking for therapeutic care.

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4 Wednesday, August 30, 2006 At 4am, Duty Officer at the Health Department gets a telephone call from the Hospital that a Chinese-talking male was conceded with his significant other and brother by marriage, all with atypical pneumonia and trouble relaxing. The patients as of late saw family in southern China and came back to the U.S. a week ago. The family goes to the Community Health Center for their restorative care since they have no medical coverage.

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5 Wednesday, August 30, 2006 (cont'd) The Health Department chooses to tell doctors, doctor's facilities, and neighborhood wellbeing authorities about the group of atypical pneumonias related with a current voyager to southern China. They request that Emergency Departments increment their observation. By Wednesday evening, the CDC discovers that episodes of atypical pneumonia are being accounted for from southern China.

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6 Wednesday, August 30, 2006 (cont'd) Tracy awakens excessively wiped out, making it impossible to go to classes and goes to the clinic crisis office. She sits in a sitting tight room loaded with patients for about on hour with a persevering hack and no face cover. Upon assessment, her oxygen immersion is 88% and trunk X-Ray indicates diffuse pneumonia. She is admitted to the healing center and set on oxygen and anti-infection agents.

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7 Thursday, August 31, 2006 In the morning, in view of news reports of flu like flare-ups in southern China, the Governor's office is overwhelmed with calls from the press and concerned natives needing to know the accompanying: What is the State doing? Is the State arranged? Will the State limit go to and from China? What number of disengagement rooms are prepared? In what manner will approach choices be made and who has input?

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8 Friday, September 1, 2006 In the morning WHO affirmed by electron microscopy and PCR that these episodes are very likely credited to a strain of avian flu infection. At 3pm, the CDC declares a Travel Advisory for southern China. It is Labor Day end of the week: individuals leave work early.

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9 Saturday, September 2, 2006 Tracy gets ugly. She creates intense respiratory disappointment requiring intubation and mechanical ventilation. Her specialists get an irresistible illness interview. Pulmonologists perform bronchoscopy, bronchial alveolar lavage, and transbronchial biopsy. All societies and stains are nondiagnostic. Her clinical status break down and she terminates at 7:31pm. Her folks, are at her bedside.

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10 Saturday, September 2, 2006 (cont'd) At the Hospital ED, the going to doctor sees that 3 understudies from a similar community gave looseness of the bowels, hack, and second rate fevers. The understudies report that few extra centers individuals are sick. The doctor reveals to them this is no doubt a viral gastroenteritis and that they ought to show signs of improvement inside 48 hours. Throughout the following 24 hours, 5 medical attendants don't come to work; 3 are hospitalized with atypical pneumonia, 2 of them at different healing facilities. The ED and healing facility disease control don't have this data.

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11 Sunday, September 3, 2006 On the 10 O'clock News, the stay reports a baffling flare-up of an influenza like disease at an understudy community abandoning one understudy dead. They likewise report that 5 human services specialists from nearby Hospitals have now been hospitalized with pneumonia, 1 of them is in basic condition.

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12 Monday, September 4, 2006 The skeletal general wellbeing staff meet and diagram a portion of the investigative and malady control issues for an interagency Task Force meeting later in the day: Where and how was Tracy contaminated? What number of understudies has she uncovered? Is it true that we are set up for a blast of cases? Could this be purposeful microbiological discharge (bioterrorism)? Would it be a good idea for us to isolate the college?

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13 Monday, September 4, 2006 (cont'd) By late evening, all zone clinics are announcing the assessment and confirmation of understudies with atypical pneumonia reliable with flu. All clinics are all on preoccupation on the grounds that their doctor's facility beds, ICU beds, and respiratory confinement rooms are full with tainted human services laborers. Understudies not requiring affirmation are being advised to come back to their homes or private lodging, to remain in their rooms, and that they will be reached by the wellbeing office.

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Tuesday, September 4, 2006 Residents alert to morning news reports of across the board sickness, swarmed crisis rooms, and doctor's facilities so short-staffed they are dismissing patients. Throughout the following a little while, 40% of school-age kids turn out to be sick and 1 of each 5 grown-ups turn out to be so sick they can't work. Truancy takes off as individuals remain home from work to look after wiped out relatives, while fear keeps others at home.

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15 Are you prepared?

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National Strategy for Pandemic Influenza Preparedness and Communications Surveillance and Detection Response and Containment

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Planning Assumptions: Health Care half or a greater amount of the individuals who turn out to be malevolence look for therapeutic care Number of hospitalizations and passings will rely on upon the harmfulness of the pandemic infection

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Pandemic Preparedness Early mediation Detect and contain where it rises, if plausible point of confinement worldwide spread, diminish sickness and demise, purchase time Pharmaceutical countermeasures Vaccines Antivirals Non-pharmaceutical intercessions Isolation for individuals with ailment Quarantine for those uncovered Social separating

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Countermeasures: Vaccines, Antivirals, and Medical Supplies

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FY2006 Emergency Supplemental Budget: $3.8 billion $350 million for redesigning State and nearby limit $50 million for lab limit and research $246 million for global exercises, reconnaissance, antibody registries, inquire about, and clinical trials $2,750 million to bolster other center exercises: extending residential generation limit of flu immunization creating and stockpiling pandemic immunization, stockpiling antivirals and other medicinal supplies to ensure and protect lives

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State and Local Business Faith-based & Community Organizations Family and Individual Physician Offices and Ambulatory Care Emergency Medical Services Travel Industry Education (K-12) Colleges & Universities Child mind Home Health Correctional associations Health protection Social administration offices Police Pandemic Influenza Preparedness Checklists

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Economic Impact: SARS Toronto, 2003 14 weeks, 375 cases, 44 passings 9 traditions drop 12,000 lost occupations Cost over $1 billion in 2003 2 years for monetary markers to return

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Economic Impact: Pandemic Flu Duration likely 12 – year and a half Foreign exchange and travel lessened Transportation might be constrained High truancy Supply chains upset Many abroad Problem with thin inventories Just-in-time conveyance Critical foundation challenges Food, water, power, sanitation, human services

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What your association can do Stay educated Prepare for the basic influenza Adopt social removing hones Expand online business and working from home Develop methodologies for high client contact Determine how to limit disturbances Collaborate with neighborhood wellbeing authorities and doctor's facilities Create a business congruity arrange

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What your association can do Review your arrangement, and refresh routinely Share the arrangement; the individuals who need to comprehend it do Stakeholder situations: representatives, clients, buyers, media Practice Testing and boring Tabletop works out

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Remember… "[Hurricane] Katrina was the most foreseen catastrophic event in American history, and still government figured out how to come up short at each level." David Brooks, NY Times, 9/11/05

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The just thing harder than getting ready for a crisis is clarifying why you didn't.