OECD Main Economic Indicators: A hotspot for a constant database

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OECD Main Economic Indicators: A hotspot for a continuous database? Richard McKenzie: OECD Tommaso Di Fonzo: University of Padova Brussels June 2005

OECD Main Economic Indicators Published in paper design since the mid 1960's Long time arrangement for key here and now financial insights for most EU nations. Quarterly GDP and use parts Index of modern creation & Composite Leading Indicators Retail Trade, Consumer and Producer Prices Wages, business and unemployment Interest rates, trade rates, money related aggregates Electronic month to month "preview" databases accessible back in any event until 1995.

MEI as a continuous database source MEI month to month depictions on a fundamental level give authentic information on ensuing discharges on an extensive variety of key factors Provides an intelligible arrangement of factors speaking to the 'data set' accessible at progressive month to month interims

OECD enthusiasm for an ongoing database Analysis – are updates as a rule getting to be distinctly littler? Are they arbitrary (i.e. revolved around 0)? Bolster globally planned research work to enhance the nature of early estimation strategies Encourage straightforwardness in the factual procedure Assess constant execution of the OECD CLIs Assessing and enhancing measurable quality: Revisions examination for the National Accounts. OECD-ONS workshop 7-8 October 2004 http://www.oecd.org/report/23/0,2340,fr_2825_495684_33729303_1_1_1_1,00.html

Current OECD extend: ongoing database & corrections examination of GDP for OECD nations Initial OECD work (Ahmad, Bournot & Koechlin, 2004) was for G7 nations, period 1996 – 2000. Current venture Expand scope to all OECD nations Expand day and age secured Devise a plan which can bolster progressing generation of constant database & outline modification examination pointers Quarterly GDP and its segments

Data accessibility for GDP (volume arrangement, sa) in the OECD MEI ongoing database (preparatory)

From levels …

… to QoQ rates of progress …

… amendments investigation tables…

… and diagrams

Extension of the work to different factors? Need to build up operational process for GDP and its segments first. In all likelihood next factor would be the Index of Industrial Production But we look for this gatherings sees on which factors ought to have need

Obstacles to amplifying the work Possible holes in our electronic sources pre-1995, just resort might be paper duplicates .... How far back ought to the ongoing database go? Operational issues (e.g. arrangement code changes) Methodological issues Constancy of national arrangement after some time (e.g. different methodological changes bringing about breaks & corrections) OECD techniques (connecting, occasional conformity) Data administration (creates enormous databases)

Obstacles to amplifying the work Hence it's an extremely asset concentrated procedure to build up a verifiable ongoing database for every variable We are continually searching for accomplices to mean assets in kind