NRE for Power Generation in the APEC Region Preliminary Findings APEC New and Renewable Energy Technologies Expert

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NRE for Power Generation in the APEC Region – Preliminary Findings APEC New and Renewable Energy Technologies Expert Group Meeting Twenty-Second Meeting 12-13 May, 2004 Jaya Singam Rajoo Asia Pacific Energy Research Center, Tokyo

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Outline Objectives Current Status of PV and Wind Technologies for Power Generation Historical Growth : Wind and PV Technology Demand Role of NRE in Power Generation Applications in Niche Market Policy Measures to Boost NRE Utilization Initial Conclusions

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Objectives Identify the part of NRE advancements for power era in the APEC area Estimate the NRE assets and possibilities in APEC district Establish the potential uses of NRE in taking care of power demand in APEC locale Examine arrangement measures to advance NRE use in APEC control segment

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40,000 35,000 30,000 Biomass, wind, sun based & others 25,000 Geothermal Hydro TWh 20,000 Oil-Based Nuclear Natural Gas 15,000 Coal Steam 10,000 5,000 0 1999 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Current and Projected Status of NRE Technologies for Power Generation in APEC Region Business As Usual (BAU) Scenario NRE's share-2.38% in 2050

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Installed Wind Capacity in Selected APEC Economies USA has 6,374 MW or 82% of the Total APEC Installed Wind Capacity in 2003 1600 7,716.6 1400 Malaysia Indonesia 1200 Chile Chinese Taipei 1000 Mexico Russia Megawatts (MW) 800 3,266.8 Korea New Zealand 600 Japan China 400 Canada Australia 200 1,645.2 0 1993 2000 2003 Source :AWEA

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7000 6000 5000 4000 MW 3000 2000 1000 0 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 Australia Canada China Japan Korea Mexico New Zealand United States Growth Trend: Installed Wind Capacity for Selected APEC Economies Source : AWEA

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Growth Trend: Installed Wind Capacity for Selected APEC Economies 1400 1200 1000 800 MW 600 400 200 0 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 Australia Canada China Japan Korea Mexico New Zealand

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35 30 25 20 US pennies/kWh 15 10 5 0 1980 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 Canada USA High Wind Speed Europe High Source : AWEA The cost of twist power in positive wind administration declined by 47% somewhere around 1990 and 2000 and may decrease another 38% by 2010

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Current Status of Wind Technology Wind limit grew 14% every year in APEC and 33% every year internationally from 1993-2003 Highest yearly development in New Zealand with 67% (but little base) trailed by Japan-54%, Australia-44%, Canada-32% and China-29% Key issue – to what extent can this quick development proceed?

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Current Status of Wind Technology Technical requirement – irregular asset limits share to 20% of aggregate era The best twist assets with most reduced producing expenses are regularly far off from load focuses. Considerable scale might be expected to permit efficient transmission over HV line Growth amassed in industrialized economies with great arrangements and monetary impetuses

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Wind Technology Boosters The US has bolstered twist R&D for around two decades, in FY2003 it totalled US$43.4 million Renewable Portfolio Standards - as of now in 16 states Cost lessening of half in the most recent 10 years because of -high development sought after -quick enhancing innovation -different approach measures and motivating forces Other motivators - PTC of 1.5 pennies/kWh for initial 10 years of operation since 1992 to 2003, augmentation as yet pending, refunds up to half of cost of little turbine (private) in C alifornia

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Wind Technology in Developing Economies Poorer economies are especially delicate to costs and can't offer money related impetuses May oblige help to outline wind assets – China, Indonesia, Mexico, Philippines and Vietnam had help from NREL In rustic zones of creating economies without built up influence networks, remain solitary wind framework are not a functional choice There might be some potential for joined wind/diesel cross breed framework in provincial applications with positive wind administration

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The US has amazing wind assets inside 100 km of real urban communities like Chicago and Minneapolis Washington N. Dakota Minnesota Montana Oregon Wyoming Iowa Colorado Kansas California Tennessee Texas Source :

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China has astounding wind assets in Anhui, Hubei and Jiangxi Provinces Area secured : 4,000 km 2 Good to Excellent Wind at 30 m – 73,500GWh/yr Moderate to phenomenal – 113,900 GWh/yr Source: NREL

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April 1984-1993 January 1984-1993 Measuring Solar Insolation Average yearly light on earth – 19 Trillion toe Current yearly prerequisite – 9 Billion toe Source: Earth Observatory, NASA

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Average Solar Radiation in USA for July The dabs speak to the 239 locales of the National Solar Radiation Database (NSRD) Source: NREL Resource Assessment Program

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Average Solar Radiation in USA for January The specks speak to the 239 destinations of the National Solar Radiation Database (NSRD) Source: NREL Resource Assessment Program

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Annual Addition to Photovoltaics (PV) Capacity Grew more than 4-overlap worldwide from 1993-2000 Source: World Energy Council

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700 600 500 JPN USA 400 AUS Megawatts (MW) MEX 300 CAN ROK 200 100 0 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 Installed Photovoltaics (PV) Capacity in APEC Region Installed limit tripled in Japan from 1999-2003 Source: IEA-PVPS

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700 600 500 400 Megawatts (MW) 300 200 100 0 AUS CAN JPN KOR MEX USA Off-framework residential [MW] Off-network non-household [MW] Grid-associated appropriated [MW] Grid-associated brought together [MW] Installed PV Capacity by Applications in S chose APEC Economies, 2002 Rooftop in Japan, blended uses somewhere else Source : IEA-PVPS

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100% 90% 80% 70% 60% half 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% AUS CAN JPN KOR MEX USA Off-lattice local [MW] Off-matrix non-local [MW] Grid-associated circulated [MW] Grid-associated incorporated [MW] Application Share from Total Installed PV Capacity in S chose APEC Economies, 2002 Mostly off-network applications with the exception of in Japan Source : IEA-PVPS

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Installed PV Capacity in S.E. Asia, 2002 Still extremely restricted, for the most part off-matrix application. Concentrate on provincial towns without power network 6000 5000 4000 Kilowatt (kW) 3000 2000 1000 0 Indonesia Malaysia Vietnam Thailand Philippines Source : ACE

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Current Status of PV Technology in APEC Region Major cost diminishments have happened. Facilitate decreases are foreseen as generation scale economies are accomplished Annual development rate of around 33% from 1971-2000 Total introduced limit still low – around 930MW Costs are still high (~ US$0.60 per kWh) yet are relied upon to decay considerably to US$0.30~0.40 by 2020 Mostly used for off-network applications (e.g. interstate lighting, remote towns) Distributed housetop applications – colossal in Japan and will be the following significant market by diminishing parity of framework expenses by joining PV modules with rooftop tiles

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Current Status of PV Technology in APEC Region The roof showcase still depends on appropriation for request incitement - 69 billion Yen from 1994-2000 covering 57,000 private frameworks in Japan (210 MW) - 16.8 billion Yen from 1992-2000 covering 495 open and business offices (13.5 MW) Large-scale lattice applications will require assist sharp cost lessening and irregular sources like PV would be restricted to around 20% of aggregate era notwithstanding when savvy

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Financial Incentives for PV Technology In US the type of sponsorship changes as indicated by State Some of the "motivating forces" offered in California include: a) State refund programs – offering $3~4/W for residential establishments b) Utility discount projects are more liberal for both private and business offices. Refunds ranges from half of first board or $3~5/W for both private and business installations

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PV Applications in China PV frameworks introduced in 600,000 1995-2003 with help from GEF PV generation limit will soon grow from 5 MW to 80MW every year to a great extent coordinated at fare advertise Total introduced PV limit ought to achieve 100MW by 2010, 80% for provincial zap Goal : 24,000 town PV cross breed framework by 2004 Rooftop showed in Beijing and Shenzen

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PV Applications in Thailand Battery charging station – 2 MWp Telecommunications – 1.5 MWp Water pumping – 1.13 MWp Hybrid network associated – 313 kWp Remote schools – 226 kWp SHS –195 kWp (18,000kW by 2005) Others – 500 kWp Future Targets 300,000 SHS with 120Wp each, to finish by 2006 50 MW urban housetop application by 2011

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PV Applications in Indonesia Total introduced limit – 5 MW SHS – more than 25,000 unit with limit of 45 Wp each had been introduced Targets –2,750 new homes to be introduced in 2004

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PV Applications in Philippines Initiated in 1980s under the Philippines-German Solar Energy Program Solar Home System (SHS)– around 3,600 framework had been introduced to date Total introduced limit – under 1MW More than 5 million family unelectrified, awesome potential for more SHS Goal – 40,000 to 60,000 SHS by 2006 Telecommunications – presently 119 frameworks for transfer stations with an introduced limit of 94Wp Water pumps – 126 frameworks with a limit of 175Wp has been introduced

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PV Applications in Malaysia SHS – 2.2 MW country foundation Telecommunications – 73kWp Water pumping – 10 kWp Navigation – 2 kWp have been introduced so far including beacon, sea signal NEDO upheld extend – 100kW (Diesel crossover framework) to supply rustic town in Sabah

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Niche Market RURAL ELECTRIFICATION More than 230 million individuals in APEC have no entrance to power Rural populace dispersion in a few economies r