Nothing as Practical as a Good Theory

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The Talk\'s Tasks. Some new parts for hypothesis in proof based policySystematic ReviewKnowledge TransferDealing with Complexity . Projects are

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Slide 1

'Nothing as Practical as a Good Theory' RAY PAWSON r.d.pawson@leeds.ac.uk

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The Talk's Tasks Some new parts for hypothesis in proof based approach Systematic Review Knowledge Transfer Dealing with Complexity

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Programs are "speculations" 'Dishy-David-Beckham-hypothesis' " Interviewer : But do you think the way that these gorgeous blokes are footballers has any impact on young ladies' state of mind to playing football? Young lady : No, I think it has more impact on them watching football, well not the football - the folks (general giggling and understanding)'.

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Rival ways to deal with precise survey Meta-investigation Narrative audits Hybrid audits THEORYDRIVEN REVIEWS www.evidencenetwork.org

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Megan's Law - Program Theory STEP ONE Problem Identification Identify high-chance discharged sex guilty parties and make legitimate and dependable registers STEP TWO Public divulgence Issue announcements, official statements, assemble conference to recognize discharged wrongdoers to their group STEP THREE Sanction Instigation Community joins with police and probation to build reconnaissance of suspicious conduct STEP FOUR Offender reaction Community activities disgrace wrongdoers and diminishing chance of further offense

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Evidence section one : could the law have had any kind of effect? - an 'imminent recreation' 6 could conceivably react to group warning 36 past offense 12 stranger savage offenses 136 genuine sex offenses 6 guilty party from out of state 24 known to casualty 100 no past offense Petrosino & Petrosino

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Evidence piece two: did the law impact recidivism? A coordinated trial Pre-mediation test sex recidivism 22% Post-intercession test sex recidivism 19% Pre-intercession test capture moderate Post-mediation sample capture fundamentally faster Schram & Milloy

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Evidence part three: how did professionals react? Office talk "The Law is an unfunded order" "Exceptional Bulletin Notification added more work to officially over-worked specialists" "There is more weight to keep an eye on SBN cases essentially on the grounds that they are SBN cases" Zevitz and Farkas

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Megan's Law - a rising hypothesis Opportunity for and viability of reconnaissance by the group is low. Expanded reconnaissance and control by law implementation - however this may prompt to identification instead of prevention.

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On the shoulders of monsters? Are assessment's lessons transferable? Can we reuse assessment discoveries? Be that as it may, would it work in my fix? Replication and the look for continuing exact speculation OR Comparison and the confederation of different discoveries under "hypothesis"

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"THE GENERIC TOOLS OF GOVERNMENT ACTION" Rather than concentrating on individual projects, as is currently done, or even accumulations of projects gathered by significant "reason" as is often proposed, the recommendation here is that we ought to focus on the nonexclusive devices of government activity that come to be utilized, in shifting mixes specifically open projects. Lester M Salamon 1981

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Carrot hypothesis - a Cook's Tour How Incentives Fare: New York Tenements Early twentieth C USA - Erewon State University Campus Late twentieth C Breakfast Room Domesticville, Canada Late twentieth C

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Earmarking 'demise cash' A critical extent of altruistic poor help, planned for fundamental nourishment and youngster welfare, was paid over as 'death cash' to be utilized for the luxurious funerals of relatives. The neighbors would talk if their wasn't a "fine format". V Zelizer

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Earmarking 'blood cash' "I sort of thought of it as like getting twenty bucks from grandma. It's without 20 dollars… . Will go blow it on something… . I never truly required it basically yet it was constantly valuable." L. Anderson et al

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Earmarking review reaction motivating forces Charities - NO! Lotteries - NO! Money - YES! $2 $5 $10 "The reaction motivating force lies in the center ground between more inconspicuous ideas of helping conduct and stripped financial self intrigue" K. Warriner et al

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Carrot Theory Refined… … . Installment is the measure - however motivations are the planned instrument But subjects follow up on the measure as opposed to the expected component The focusing of motivators will dependably be twisted through "reserving" Earmarking can be benevolent or a scourge in approach terms Earmarking lies amongst "selfishness" and "philanthropy" Earmarking practices will fluctuate as indicated by beneficiary and setting Policy creators need to consider what are the potential reserving rehearses related with another impetus, and whether they will bolster or contort the proposed result

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COMPLEXITY New Deal for Communities - The Implementation Chain Policy Architects  Practitioners  Subjects Social rejection  Social assembly  Organizational  Program

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Dealing with C o m p l e x i t y Don't attempt to assess everything - accept some program hypotheses work Use suites of research - both live assessments and review surveys Remember to winnow confirm from other strategy areas Use level (speculations of-progress) cuts and take after usage successions Use vertical (realist) cuts and test program systems in various settings THE BOTTOM LINE - IT IS IMPOSSIBLE TO EVALUATE AND CONTROL EVERY CONSTITUENT PROCESS

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CALL-TO-ARMS GO FORTH AND Theorize

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