NDIA 2003 Systems Engineering Conference 20-23 October 2003

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NDIA 2003 Systems Engineering Conference 20-23 October 2003 Rapid Response Technology Trade Study Tool – R2T2 Technology Management of Systems in Practice Tom Herald tom.herald@lmco.com 703-367-2973 LM Maritime Systems & Sensors Manassas, VA 20110-4157

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Background Technology Refreshment – Obsolescence Driven Technology Assessment – Input information Technology Refreshment Strategy and Plan R2T2 Description – A Technology Management Approach Agenda

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Started with an enthusiasm for having the capacity to anticipate how regularly change must jump out at a framework keeping in mind the end goal to moderate the effects of individual part out of date quality, particularly in COTS frameworks. Take note of that a segment in this definition can be a section at any level in the pecking order. Projects of beginning interest were : JSF (F-35) - Started the enthusiasm with arranged TR and TI amid improvement window and administration of a COTS-concentrated arrangement, especially at the board and sub-get together levels. SLVR - Super Low and Very Low Frequency Radar offered a little measured venture to test the manual procedure that advanced into the R2T2 electronic (ASP organize) motor. ACS - Aerial Common Sensor (Army) Concept Exploration stage took into account facilitate refinement of the model and introductory approval. ARCI – Acoustic Rapid COTS Insertion, Advanced Processing Build Background

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Technology Insertion Additional Functionality Can Be Accommodated By Re-Populating Processing Units or by Migrating Up the Product Line High Density Embedded Processing Systems HPC Servers Web Servers Workstations Technology Refreshment Strategy With Escalating Technology Performance 10,000 1,000 Processing Throughput (GFLOPS) Technology Refreshment Strategy Migrate Applications Down the Vendor's Product Line To Leverage Lower Cost, High-Volume Processors 100 Technology Refreshment Strategy Consolidate Processing Into Fewer, Partially Populated Processing Units to Reduce Cost 10 1 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

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Open Standards Evolve Too! 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 Complex System Operational Profile Typical Processor Products Current Open and Defacto Standards Examples ATM OC3 OC12 OC48 OC192 FCS UNIX CORBA VME Potential New Technologies Windows NT DCOM Key Evolving Technologies Next Generation Processor Technology Continuous Evolution Required To Avoid System Obsolescence To Keep Pace with Prevailing Standards To Enable Technology Insertion, Functional Enhancement Product Life Cycle Development Production Support

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Technology Refresh Process Strategy & Plan Development Assess Each Product Selected Open Standards Conformance Technologies Employed Current Status of Each Technology Life Cycle Technology Change Frequency Capacity Change Percent Current Technology Maturity Develop Technology Refresh Strategy Plan for Cost Effective "Condition of-the-Practice Bathtub Curve" Keep in "Cutting edge" Product Announcements + 4 Levels Use System Assessment to Set a Tech Refreshment Frequency Have a Commonality Vision That the Strategy Supports Develop Technology Refresh Plan Maintain Open Standards, Change Only As Required for TOC Minimize Architectural Re-Design Cost Unique Solution for Each Subsystem Technology Refreshment Roadmap Integrate the Unique Solutions Create Matrix (W/Subsystems As X-Axis & Tech Refreshes As Y-Axis) Synchronize with Any Known/Projected Functionality Upgrade Plans

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Technology Refreshment Strategy Based on Technology & Product Assessments Example = TR at regular intervals: 2005 2010 2015 . . . 2000 Potential Supplier Change . . . Starting Baseline 2005 Tech Refresh 2010 Tech Refresh Major HW Changes Initial OSA Set OSA Stable Minor OSA Change . . . SW Fixes & Capability Enhanced SW TR 1 SW TR 2 SW TR 3 SW TR 4 SW TR 5 SW TR 6 SW TR 7 SW TR 8 . . . Shape/Fit HW Changes HW Refresh HW Refresh HW Refresh . . . F3I-Compatible HW Changes Asynchronous Substitutions for Out-of-Production Parts . . . Synchronize HW/SW Changes to Consolidate System Regression Testing

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What is the Ideal Point for a Technology Refreshment? Bounce to A+1 or A+2? Cost Is High at Initial Product Introduction and Goes Down As Competition Increases Technology Change Periodicity & Percent Change Cost Goes Back Up As Technology Advances and Supportability Costs Increase Cost Technology Maturity = Where is the Subsystem in the Current Technology Life Cycle? Condition of-the-Practice Cost Stabilizes Technology Life Cycle Product Cost Life Cycle Time Product Generation A + 2 Product Generation A + 1 Product Generation A R2T2 Technology Refresh Strategy Technology Refreshment Strategy Development Technology Life Cycle for Each Product Technology Maturity for Each Product Technology Change Frequency Capacity Percent Change

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NRE Cost for Refreshments High cost for High Refreshment Frequency (i.e. every year) Low cost for 15-year modernization technique Support Cost Element Small Cost for High Refreshment Frequency (i.e. every year) – Low Need for extras acquisition, however more prominent Configuration Management (i.e. Specialized Documentation and Training) High Cost for "extension purchases" to end of long refreshment frequencies (i.e. 10 – 15 years long) Cost because of end of stage high dollar speculation, sunk cost, spending wastefulness. Two Factors: MTBF and Obsolescence See Next Slide for Graphical View . . . Innovation Change Considerations

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Realized Total Refreshment Costs = Refreshment NRE + Refreshment Recurring + Support NRE + Support Recurring Support Cost Element NRE Cost for Refreshments Once in Life Cycle Annually (Fast-Paced) Technology Change Cost Graph Cost Technology Refreshment Frequency Finding the Balance of Support and Change Costs

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Technology Refreshment Is a Necessary Fact of Life for COTS-Based & Custom-Designed Systems Required for Supportability Reduces Cost of Ownership Allows Continuous Exploitation of Exponentially-Improving Technology Facilitates Introduction of Advanced, Processing-Intensive Functionality Effective Planning for Technology Refreshment Based on: Comprehensive Technology Strategy and Plan To Accurately Anticipate Technology and COTS Product Directions Implementation-Independent Design To Enable Low Cost Exploitation of Emerging COTS Products and Advanced Technologies Technology Management Summary

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Abstract Current vital industry capacities are centered around part level out of date quality expectations, (for example, TACTrac, i2 LCE and MOCA) and hope to foresee just the "following" oldness issue. This R2T2 innovation evaluation motor allows the level of reflection to be raised to sub-get together, unit, sub-framework and the framework level in support of System-of-Systems outline . This apparatus likewise concentrates on the advancements and their conduct (in light of history and additionally client learning inputs). The calculation for evaluating a framework conduct from the collection of the innovation components is the heart of this exploration. R2T2 Summary & Abstract Summary of the Intent Rapid Response Technology & Trade Study approach and help for Technology Forecasting and Strategy Recommendations (particularly valuable amid proposition and early theoretical stages) See Enhanced Function Flow Block Diagrams on taking after pages

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Tom Herald R2T2 High-Level Description

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Problem to Solve The Needs: Rapid Response Technology Assessment Mechanism that can bolster Proposal Trades, CE Trades and in addition Development stage. Give a Rapid Response to a Technology Assessment (on request of hours, not weeks) Give a "80% exact" full life Cost Estimate for examination and measuring Recommend a Program TR recurrence Defendable/Tangible Process sufficiently flexible to handle What-If Synthesis Inexpensive Solution

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What is the commercial center for the exploration? Which LM program could utilize it? TACTrac (an item now possessed by i2, already claimed by TACTECH). Part level (capacitor, transistors, and so on.) outdated nature database, with broad industry examining and information gathering. Exceptionally costly item (about $20,000 in addition to yearly expenses for week after week overhauls). It rates an item on a size of 1(new) to 5(obsolete). Gives notices of looming oldness. LCE (additionally possessed by i2, their unique item), likewise costly, and utilizes the TACTrac model of information get-together and database administration. Same thought, get information from industry, aggregate and offer. MOCA (University of Maryland, CALCE association) is an exploration level C++ modified Graduate venture. It takes yield from a TACTrac or LCE and utilizations it to anticipate a program Tech Refresh point. It utilizes generation calendars and part following. Still too low a level for thought. No cost information (no deals yet). Commercial center

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R2T2 execution depends on: Engineering information and innovation evaluation inputs Develops a program-level synchronous TR recurrence Optimizes the prescribed TR recurrence in view of life cycle cost Develops a TR Plan for each invigorate point, distinguishing vital changes by part number. Builds up a Life Cycle Plan for every framework serial number Allows for What-if Analysis to look at gauge choices rapidly Provides a brisk/coarse Reliability Assessment for correlations Develops a coarse Cost Estimate (can utilize Price or ICE as sought) Integrated, Web-sent, utilizes databases (no shadowing) Clean, open design execution augmenting adaptability R2T2 Approach

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R2T2 Optimization Strategy Easy Side by Side Comparison of Strategies Increased, Customizable Graphing Capabilities

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R2T2 Tech Refresh Screens These diagrams speak to a portion of the innovation groupings for the VME System. The diagrams plot the development of the framework parts and the anticipated cost connected with a given usefulness.