NCEP Chemistry Modeling Overview and Status With an emphasis on NEMS AQ improvement

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NCEP Chemistry Modeling Overview and Status (With an attention on NEMS AQ advancement) Sarah Lu NOAA/NWS/NCEP Environmental Modeling Center with affirmations to numerous associates and colleagues

Acknowledgments: EMC AQ group Jeff McQueen, Ho-Chun Huang, Youhua Tang, Dongchul Kim, Marina Tsidulko, Caterina Tassone EMC UMIG group Mark Iredell, Henry Juang, Shrinivas Moorthi, Tom Black, Jun Wang, Weiyu Yang, Ratko Vasic, Ed Colon EMC GMB Yu-Tai Hou, Suranjana Saha, Fanglin Yang, Xu Li, Jesse Meng, Yuejian Zhu, Jongil Han, John Ward EMC GSI group John Derber, Russ Treadon, Daryl Kleist, Haixia Liu CPC Craig Long, Shuntai Zhou NWS OST Paula Davidson, Ivanka Stajner OAR ARL Daewon Byun, Pius Lee, Roland Draxler, Ariel Stein, Hsin-Mu Lin, Daiwen Kang, Daniel Tong, Shao-cai Yu GSFC Arlindo da Silva, Mian Chin, Thomas Diehl EPA Ken Schere, Rohit Mathur, Jon Pleim Howard University Everette Joseph, William Stockwell NESDIS Shobha Kondragunta, Quanhua Liu, Yong Han, Brad Pierce GEMS Final Assembly, Julich, 31 March – 3 April, 2009

Extensive science demonstrating endeavors inside NOAA Research Laboratories (e.g., ESRL, ARL, GFDL) and NESDIS. Correlation of RAQMS OMI+TES reanalysis with IONS ozonesondes (373 sondes, August, 2006) PI: ANNE M. THOMPSON Penn State The TES+OMI absorption brings about huge decreases in section, tropospheric (>100mb), and stratospheric (<100mb) predispositions (all less then 1%) However, the low tropospheric inclinations are the consequence of remunerating blunders in the upper and lower troposphere. Tropospheric predispositions: +/ - 20% Brad Pierce (NESDIS/STAR) Fishman, J et al., "Remote Sensing of Tropospheric Pollution from Space", BAMS June 2008 Pierce et al. " Impacts of foundation ozone creation on Houston and Dallas, TX Air Quality amid the TexAQS field mission", Accepted JGR-Atmospheres, February, 2009 GEMS Final Assembly, Julich, 31 March – 3 April, 2009

Outline NCEP current climate air quality abilities National AQ Forecast Capability Global ozone absorption NCEP R&D exercises National Environmental Modeling System NEMS Interactive air science displaying Proposed upgrades Impact of element horizontal BCs on AQ estimates Impact of pressurized canned products on climate conjectures Conclusions GEMS Final Assembly, Julich, 31 March – 3 April, 2009

NCEP Current Weather-AQ Capabilities GEMS Final Assembly, Julich, 31 March – 3 April, 2009

AQI: Peak Oct 4 EPA Monitoring Network National Air Quality Forecast Capability End-to-End Operational Capability Model Components: Linked numerical expectation framework Operationally incorporated on NCEP's supercomputer NCEP mesoscale NWP: WRF-NMM NOAA/EPA people group demonstrate for AQ: CMAQ Observational Input: NWS climate perceptions; NESDIS fire areas EPA emanations stock Gridded figure direction items On NWS servers: www.weather.gov/aq and ftp-servers On EPA servers Updated 2x every day Verification premise, close continuous: Ground-level AIRNow perceptions Satellite smoke perceptions Customer outreach/criticism State & Local AQ forecasters composed with EPA Public and Private Sector AQ constituents Website checking Paula Davidson (NWS OST)

Expansion of scope 166 Grid cells 265 lattice cells 142 matrix cells 142 Northeast US "1x" Domain Sept 04 259 network cells CONUS "5x" Domain OPS: AQFC Sept. 07 EXP: AQFC/CB05 June. 08 DEV: AQFC/CB05-AERO-4 Eastern "3x" Domain Sept 05 268 framework cells 442 network cells Jeff McQueen (EMC) GEMS Final Assembly, Julich, 31 March – 3 April, 2009

NCEP Air Quality Forecast Verification http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/aq 8 h Avg Ozone Obs versus Fcst Production Experimental 20 Bias (ppb) Bias (ppb) - 10 Almost the same for NW and Mid West Higher for NE, SE and Low Miss Valley (increment positive predisposition) Higher for SW (enhance negative inclination) Jeff McQueen (EMC) GEMS Final Assembly, Julich, 31 March – 3 April, 2009

Global Ozone Assimilation in GSI Why acclimatize Ozone forecasts UV Index Forecasts Air Quality Forecasts Needed for absorbing radiances from IR instruments (eg. HIRS, AIRS) where ozone impacts the exactness of deciding temperatures. Parameterized ozone material science in GFS Production and devastation are parameterized from month to month and zonal mean dataset got from NRL 2D ozone science show Current and future ozone items to be absorbed at NCEP GFS as of now acclimatizing just NOAA-17 SBUV/2 (nadir obs) Probable information overhaul to NOAA-18 and workable for NOAA-19 OMI and GOME-2 add up to ozone being tried in parallel offers more prominent even and latitudinal scope NRT MLS ozone profile item is being assessed. OMPS (NPP and NPOESS) Craig Long (CPC) GEMS Final Assembly, Julich, 31 March – 3 April, 2009

Total Ozone Analysis Improvements by Assimilating OMI TOz notwithstanding SBUV/2 More Structure Tighter Gradients Craig Long and Shuntai Zhou (CPC) GEMS Final Assembly, Julich, 31 March – 3 April, 2009

An Overview of National Environmental Modeling System (NEMS) GEMS Final Assembly, Julich, 31 March – 3 April, 2009

National Environmental Modeling System (NEMS) Unified Modeling Infrastructure Group, drove by Mark Iredell Earth Science Modeling Framework (ESMF) http://www.esmf.ucar.edu NEMS air Write history and Post processor Nesting Aerosols and Chemistry Land Ocean, waves and ocean ice Ionosphere Ensemble Data osmosis NCEP UMIG bunch routinely meets with GSD and GFDL bunches GEMS Final Assembly, Julich, 31 March – 3 April, 2009

NEMS Atmosphere Color Key Generic Component Atmosphere Generic Coupler bound together climate Including advanced channel Completed Instance Under Development Future Development Dynamics Physics Chemistry Dyn-Phy Coupler ARW NMM-B NAM Phy GOCART do nothing FVCORE Spectral GFS Phy AQF chem FISL FIM Navy diminished science Navy adjoints The objective is one brought together air segment that can summon different flow and material science. As of now, elements and material science keep running on a similar lattice in a similar decay, so the coupler actually does nothing. FY2010 operational execution for NEMS NMM-B Mark Iredell (EMC) GEMS Final Assembly, Julich, 31 March – 3 April, 2009

Developing an intelligent climate science estimate framework In-line science advantage Consistent: no spatial-transient interjection, same material science parameterization Efficient: bring down general CPU costs Easy information administration Allows for criticism to meteorology Requirements: Meteorology and science ought to be instated with GSI Conform to NCO CCS PC engineering Conform to NCO programming & I/O guidelines (GRIB/BUFR) NEMS AQ improvement: NMM-B Chem (utilizing CB05) In support of local AQF framework GFS combined with GOCART Potential for enhancing climate figures (by enhancing vaporized radiation input in GFS and barometrical amendment in GSI) Providing LBCs for territorial AQF airborne expectations GEMS Final Assembly, Julich, 31 March – 3 April, 2009

NEMS Tracer Experiments: NMM-B and GFS GEMS Final Assembly, Julich, 31 March – 3 April, 2009

NEMS NMM-B tracer test Youhua Tang (EMC) GEMS Final Assembly, Julich, 31 March – 3 April, 2009

NEMS GFS tracer explore Change in all out mass stacking (scaled by beginning qualities) IC = 2009/01/01 00Z - 1.37%  0.03% (dispersion off) GB EAS WAF SAM NAM GLB_SFC GLB_UTLS GLB_ALL T62 L64 30-day tests: CTR, CLD (Ferrier cloud microphysics), DYN (Adiabatic), SAS (Simplified Arakawa-Schubert convection), TVD (Flux-constrained vertical shift in weather conditions) GEMS Final Assembly, Julich, 31 March – 3 April, 2009

NEMS GFS tracer test Zonal mean cross area for SAM_SFC & SAM_UTLS (IC=20090101) Flux-restricted vertical shift in weather conditions decreases (however does not dispose of) negative tracer values GEMS Final Assembly, Julich, 31 March – 3 April, 2009

Global vaporized conjecture and investigation framework (GFS-GOCART) GEMS Final Assembly, Julich, 31 March – 3 April, 2009

Global airborne gauge and examination framework Goal: Improving climate and air quality conjectures by consolidating prognostic pressurized canned products in GFS and absorbing worldwide airborne data in GSI through NCEP-NASA/GSFC-Howard University joint efforts MODIS fire discharges Regional AQF Emissions Global gauge and examination framework Dynamic LBCs GOCART Modeling Atmos. Revision SST Analysis Data Assimilation Algorithm Color key Validation NASA obs and tech ROSE venture Various datasets AERONET, OMI, CALIPSO Satellite information NCEP DSSs GEMS Final Assembly, Julich, 31 March – 3 April, 2009

Global vaporized conjecture and examination framework (- cont'd) Multiple, correlative methodologies: On-line frameworks including GOCART: GFS/GOCART: new capacity being created GEOS-5/GOCART: NASA/GMAO ongoing framework GFS~GEOS-5/GOCART: Hybrid model (GEOS-5 elements + GFS material science) Off-line GOCART CTM Driven by GFS meteorology Phased improvement: Development of model framework Transition to continuous framework Transition to operational generation Prototype framework stretched out to incorporate ozone science (if assets accessible) Transition to NCEP's atmosphere framework (if assets accessible) NEMS/GFS-GOCART Dust-just disconnected GFS-GOCART GEMS Final Assembly, Julich, 31 March – 3 April, 2009

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gc_wmb/dkim/web/html/dust_day.html GEMS Final Assembly, Julich, 31 March – 3 April, 2009

Challenges for joining science segment into NEMS GFS: Resources !! Code streamlining required The consideration of 15 uninvolved tracers prompts to ~45% expansion in divider time The 3d climate record sizes expanded by the variable of 2.4-2.7 Needed capacities Convective transport (under testing for RAS) Tracer searching Positive unmistakable shift in weather conditions with mass moderating The science displaying endeavors w