Motivation Item 8.4: Trade and the emergency

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Worldwide Infrastructure Needs 2030/50. An undertaking of the OECD International Futures Program. Frameworks Project. Stage 1: Surface transport, water, power, information transfers (finished 2007)Phase 2: Transcontinental foundations : ports, air terminals, rail passages, oil and gas pipelines (on-going)Three time skylines: Short-term 2015; Medium-term projections 2030; Long-term situations 2

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Motivation Item 8.4: Trade and the emergency Infrastructure: Recent improvements and standpoint for activity streams and limits

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Global Infrastructure Needs 2030/50 A venture of the OECD International Futures Program

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Infrastructures Project Phase 1: Surface transport, water, power, broadcast communications (finished 2007) Phase 2: Transcontinental foundations : ports, air terminals, rail passageways, oil and gas pipelines (on-going) Three time skylines: Short-term 2015; Medium-term projections 2030; Long-term situations 2050

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Transcontinental Infrastructures Short Term Outlook to 2015 John White and Barrie Stevens Advisory Unit to the Secretary-General

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Current Situation and Outlook to 2015 Financial and credit emergency – shockingly sharp effects on GDP development, exchange and transport request in 2008-09 The consequent retreat has been the most serious for quite a long time – and not the same as past downturns Recovery is in progress - yet the pace of recuperation uneven The Outlook to 2015 is still moderately questionable – distinctive directions in OECD and non-OECD nations

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World Economic Trends – and expected bounce back Deep withdrawal in cutting edge economies in 2008-09 Global subsidence anticipated that would end in 2009 Subdued recuperation ahead for nations most influenced Return to solid development in rising economies - 2010 onwards World GDP - % change Source: IMF October 2009

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World GDP and International Trade Growth Trade development - truly at least 2 times GDP development Forecasts foresee significant exchange bounce back and development from 2010 onwards

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Impacts on movement volumes, particularly cargo and vitality Overview of late estimates and projections

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Aviation Outlook - Passenger Forecasts to 2013 Source: Airports Council International, August 2009 Strong air traveler development to 2013 - development above av. long haul rate (4.7% p.a.)

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Aviation Outlook - Air cargo estimates to 2014 World air payload – figure yearly development rates (%) Source: Airports Council International Aug 2009 Projected Air Freight development well above av. yearly rate of 3.8% p.a. (1999-2008)

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Maritime Outlook – Forecast development in Container Port Handling to 2014 Source: Drewry, Oct 2009 Recovery from 2009 fall – however holder development rates underneath past patterns (>10% dad)

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Rail Outlook– Forecast Rail Freight Carriage 2015 Rail Freight carriage file levels – 2000 and 2015 Source: Infrastructure to 2030 report Strong rail cargo development expected in many spots – especially China and India

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Oil viewpoint – figure development in essential request - 2000 and 2015 Source: IEA World Energy Outlook 2009 (Nov.2009) Non-OECD districts – particularly Asia and the Middle-East - represent all oil development

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Gas standpoint – gauge development in essential request 2000 to 2015 Source: IEA World Energy Outlook 2009 Gas "excess" with request - 3% in 2009 – yet request to grow 2.5% dad from 2010-2015

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Impact on limits

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Aviation Outlook – Capacity Shortfall in Europe? ACI 2008 : Before the downturn , 93 airplane terminals (with 2/3 of world activity) were at that point limit compelled. In EU, more than 60 air terminals not ready to take care of demand by 2015 2. Schipol [Director, A/P Development], Oct. 2009. There is 'no airplane terminal limit mash in Europe'… .. Source: Infrastructure to 2030 report

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Maritime – Container Flows and Port Capacity Port Capacity Assessments 1. ESCAP, 2007 : Substantial new limit will be required in every single significant area over period to 2015. ESCAP district will command the necessities for new compartments amid this period. 2. Drewry, Oct. 2009 : Many ports have put intensely in new terminals in view of surge of post - Panamax tonnage. Neither the boats nor terminals are required for quite a long while.

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Outlook – GDP development versus World exchange & transport (IMF October 2009) IMF 2009 : World Trade/Income Drewry, Oct 2009 . Gross domestic product/compartment exchange The 'Gross domestic product to holder' exchange various has commonly been well in abundance of 2.0 Unlikely western oversee ments/buyers can fuel comparative development in future - serving to lessen the rate at which holder exchange development can surpass worldwide financial action. Source: IMF WEO 2009

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Europe: Rail Outlook – Capacity Shortfall in 2015 Source: UIC Study on Capacity hold, 2005. Expanded rail travelers & cargo liable to uncover EU limit shortages more than 2015-30

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Oil viewpoint – Forecast development in essential request Source: IEA WEO 2009 In the oil and gas area, most organizations have reported reductions in capital spending - and in addition extend deferrals and cancelations . Falling vitality speculation will have extensive and possibly genuine outcomes.

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Gas pipelines – anticipated courses to Europe Source: Infrastructure to 2030 report - TBA

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Conclusions Financial emergency and retreat have taken the weight off limit deficits in the here and now - in all divisions. Be that as it may, development as per 'Reference Case' projections would see: a multiplying of air travelers in 15 years; a tripling of airship cargo in 20 years; vast increments in port compartment dealing with; and expanded interest for oil and gas, especially amid 2015-2030 in all cases, the biggest increments will happen in the Asia/Pacific area, drove by China and India. The rest in interest in a few areas will intensify the beforehand expected setbacks – once world GDP and request bounce back to prior pattern levels.