Life At The Top Of The S-Curve

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Life At The Top Of The S-Curve Randy Rettberg

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Example: Disk Density 2x/12 mo MBytes/In 2 Largest areal thickness accomplished amid year.

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Example: Disk Costs 0.5x/12mo Cents/MByte 2000: 75 GB/$400 2003: 200 GB/$250 2004 2000 1995

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Moore's Law (1979)

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Limits to Moore's Law?

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Internet Growth (Hosts) ARPANET INTERNET

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The Business Climate - 5 Great Years Sept 1999

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The Business Climate - But not for drive sellers Seagate

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Stages of the Growth Curve Fear Resignation Greed Love

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Lots of Growth Curves Television E-money Movies Images Mp3 Games Web Gopher, Archie Streams FTP Email Mag tape exchange Remote asset sharing Terminal get to Terminal connecting

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Growth In Many Fields

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Stunted Growth ?

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Double-Digit Returns The Hard Way 2003 1995

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What Happened? It was never genuine – the air pocket burst. Simply the typical business cycle. It will show signs of improvement soon. Gravity - What goes up must descend. The Internet did not change everything. It was Y2K all things considered.

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Or How About: We got more innovation than we needed. How quick is the CPU in your PC? An abundant excess dull fiber? How would you fill a 200 GB circle? Imposing business model stifled advancement. Napster lost. Copyright turned out badly, hindering the media unrest. We got picture PDAs rather than telephone brings over the Internet.

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Life at the Top of the S-Curve It may keep going quite a while It won't not be fun It may moderate everything else Where might we look?

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Dow 1930 - 2003 1999 1966 1982 1942

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Life at the Top of the S-Curve It may keep going quite a while It won't not be fun It may moderate everything else Non-specialized issues rule

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Storage Practice and Customer Care

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Sun Micro HealthCheck Open Escalations 22 700 20 600 18 16 500 14 HealthChecks Complete 400 12 10 300 8 200 6 4 100 2 0 7/99 1/00 7/00

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Strategy 1 Grow out of it!

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3 Growth Laws 2x/6-9 mo 2x/12 mo Packets/Sec Bytes/In 2 Transistors/In 2 2x/18 mo 2000

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Storage Service Providers Storage Networks Arsenal Digital Solutions Storage Computer Storage Way

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Networks for Storage iSCSI TCP/IP TCP/IP

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Growing Pressure

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Strategy 2 Politics! Try not to give them a chance to stop development!

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Media As An Example Napster case cut development of mp3 Less interest for mp3 players Less interest for sound In/Out Less interest for E-money to pay for music DMCA – Copyright turned out badly Uncertainty for media financial specialists Uncertainty for broadband organization Uncertainty for PC equipment Remember that CD appropriation was driven by "oldies"

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Less Obvious Blocks No e-cash – Banks and Credit Card Laws (Factoring) No telephone calls – Telephone industry No security – National cryptography approach and fear mongering

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Strategy 3 Go sideways!

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Computer/Communications Revolution 2100 - Nanotechnology 2050 - Internet Reaches Ubiquity 2000 – Y2K Averted 1970 - Internet Created 1945 - Computers Created 1900 - Electric Lighting 1800 - Industrial Revolution 1500 - Renaissance 1000 - Middle Ages (Nothing Happens) 0 - Roman Empire

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Still to come: Movies Television Telephone Money Security Telemetry "The Internet Changes Everything" Where are they?

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A Sideways Approach Connect everything to the Internet. What are the conventions? Practically disseminated knowledge rather than focal insight. Supplant simple sound, video, IR control, RF control, RS-232, with Internet. Who is in control? Everyone!

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Sideways At Sun End-to-end checksums Less virtualization not more Non-unpredictable compose cushion IDE Disks 2.5 times less costly at same limit, same RPM 3.5 times less costly at same limit, 2/3 RPM Less firmware No plate to-circle interconnect

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Strategy 4: Understand The Innovator's Dilemma. The Innovator's Dilemma, When New Technologies Cause Great Firms to Fail , Clayton Christensen, 1997.

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Principles of Disruptive Innovation Customers and speculators decide portion of assets Small Markets don't explain the development needs of substantial organizations Markets that don't exist can't be broke down Technology supply may surpass showcase request From The Innovator's Dilemma , Christensen

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Stages of Disruptive Innovation Disruptive advances were initially created inside built up firms Marketing faculty then looked for responses from their lead clients Established firms venture up pace of managing mechanical improvement From The Innovator's Dilemma , Christensen

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Stages of Disruptive Innovation (cont.) New organizations were shaped, and advertises for the problematic advances were found by experimentation The new organizations climbed advertise Established firms belatedly hopped on the temporary fad to protect their client base From The Innovator's Dilemma , Christensen

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The Answer Give duty regarding troublesome advances to associations whose clients require them. From The Innovator's Dilemma , Christensen

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Strategy 5 Listen to the youthful. The trend-setter's predicament applies all around. Early retirement is clearing the business

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Strategy 6 Bootstrap Companies Government financing Consulting and bolster Grow at an indistinguishable rate from your market Reduced desires for capital Keep it straightforward Own your business

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Strategy 7 Join a New Curve Synthetic Biology Computers

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Homework Don't accept what industry pioneers say. They don't have a clue. Target new advances at new markets. The shortcomings of troublesome innovations are their qualities. Utilize the development bends. Inspect the unexamined. Do the unforeseen.