Joint Hurricane Test Bed JHT Progress and Future Plans

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USWRP Joint Hurricane Test Bed (JHT) Progress and Future Plans Dr. Jiann-Gwo Jiing JHT Director Chief, TSB TPC/NHC 3 March 2004

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Outline Project Assessments 2002-03 Status of 10 First Round Projects (FY01-02) Summary of Second Round Projects Funded in Late FY03 JHT Future Plans JHT Issues

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Project Assessments 2002-03 IT arrangement and calculation handling accommodated every venture to encourage forecaster investment Real-time testing and assessment exercises kept amid 2003 season PIs introduced upgrades at 57 th Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference (IHC) (Mar 2003) FY01-02 ventures finished up (Jun-Aug 2003) JHT reports to TPC/NHC Director on results from 2002-03 sea tempest seasons (Nov 2003) TPC/NHC choices for operational execution (Dec 2003)

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Input for JHT Project Reports to the TPC Director Project PI last report JHT staff individuals' appraisals TPC Point of Contact (POC) criticism JHT IT Facilitator report IT exchange status Compatibility and bolster issues Estimates of expenses to actualize and bolster Input from TPC Technical Support Branch Chief

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Example: Development of a Tropical Cyclone Rainfall Climatology and Persistence (R-CLIPER) Model PI: Frank Marks (NOAA/AOML/HRD) POC: Stacy Stewart and Hugh Cobb (TPC), David Roth (HPC) Status: Accepted by TPC for operational usage Provide standard TC precipitation gauges for surveying ability of different techniques Develop R-CLIPER from gage and TMI climatology for operational and model QPF correlations Project climatology along figure track

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Example: Development of a Tropical Cyclone Rainfall Climatology and Persistence (R-CLIPER) Model Considerations for operational execution choice Favorable: Provides benchmark conjecture, as initially proposed, expected to assess the expertise of different wellsprings of TC precipitation direction (principally dynamical models, as in the new JHT extend subsidized in FY03) TPC and HPC forecasters have observed the direction to be helpful operationally (e.g., for planning summed up precipitation data in broad daylight advisories) Code has been exchanged to TPC where it is run and kept up locally Gempak/NMAP2 graphical yield as of now routinely accessible to pros for every dynamic TC in the Atlantic and eastern North Pacific bowls Negligible CPU, plate space, memory to run; insignificant bolster required Unfavorable: Unclear purpose behind required modification component to definite yield Verification comes about not yet finished Does not represent storm asymmetries

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Example: Development of a Tropical Cyclone Rainfall Climatology and Persistence (R-CLIPER) Model Example ongoing yield in NAWIPS amid Hurricane Lili (2002)

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Example: Development of a Tropical Cyclone Rainfall Climatology and Persistence (R-CLIPER) Model Example content for IT answer to TPC Director

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Factors Considered in TPC Decisions for Operational Implementation Forecast or Analysis Benefit: expected change in operational gauge as well as investigation exactness Efficiency: adherence to forecaster time imperatives and convenience needs Compatibility: IT similarity with operational equipment, programming, information, interchanges, and so on. Manageability: accessibility of assets to work, overhaul, as well as give support

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Status of 10 First Round Projects (FY01-02) Ten undertakings were financed in FY01 One was denied second year subsidizing Six were acknowledged for operational execution Decisions on two activities were conceded until the consummation of firmly related new tasks One was not acknowledged for operational usage as of now

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Summary of Second Round of Projects Funded in Late FY03

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Federal Register Notice (FRN) discharged 3 January 2003 Open to government, scholarly, and private segment candidates overall Estimated add up to accessible subsidizing $1.5M

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FY03 Review Process Preapplications (Letters of Intent) surveyed in February 2003 34 preapplications got 24 prescribed to present a full proposition Full proposition checked on amid April and May 2003 24 full recommendations got Proposals autonomously inspected and scored by 7-part audit board based upon six audit criteria recorded in the FRN

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FY03 Selection Process Recommendations and Selections (Jun – Sep 2003) Proposal rank dictated by the normal of aggregate scores from all (non-recused) analysts TPC/JHT Directors suggested subsidizing 16 recommendations 15 new ventures supported for summer 2003 – summer 2004 (one of chose 16 pulled back) 3 one-year undertakings and 12 two-year ventures (last will be assessed after first year for a brief moment year of subsidizing)

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FY03 Funded Project Focus Areas

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TPC/NHC Project Points of Contact Forecaster 15 ventures, 6 authorities 3 masters handle 3 extends each, other 3 handle 2 extends each Additional TAFB as well as HSM contacts where coveted Real-time assessment, confirmation, composed reports Technical Needed for a few undertakings Assist PI, their staff, and JHT Facilitator in setup of code, information, and so on for testing and assessment Provide contribution to JHT staff on composed appraisals

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FY03 Funding Distribution Total $1.35M (another $150K unused)

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Funding Distribution Comparison Increased financing to scientists outside of NOAA FY2003 $1.35M FY2002 $1.2M

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JHT Future Plans Round Two ventures (FY03-04 financing) Review every venture for second year of subsidizing (FY04) Real-time testing and assessment amid 2004 tropical storm season, and a portion of 2005 season Submit results to TPC in late 2005 for choices on operational execution Round Three tasks (FY05-06 financing) Develop new declaration of chance for early FY05 discharge Anticipating comparative territories of center concerning Round Two Oct 2004 – Mar 2005: audit, select, and finance new arrangement of undertakings Real-time testing and assessment amid 2005 and 2006 sea tempest seasons (could be deferred for one season if financing timetable is postponed)

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JHT Issues Perceptions Lack of starting reasonableness and openness Addressed by the JHT Federal Register Notice in 2003 NOAA labs have an uncalled for preferred standpoint over non-NOAA inquire about establishments More than half of the assets granted in FY 03 went to non-NOAA organizations JHT Steering Committee involves four non-NOAA individuals and three NOAA individuals Closed to imaginative displaying methodologies Will be tended to by the Developmental Test Bed (DTC) Heavy workload for TPC Impact on authoritative, specialized, and operations staff TPC and JHT staffs are distinguishing approaches to streamline and appoint work, in light of lessons gained from culmination of a full first round of ventures

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JHT Issues proceeded with IT similarity Potential absence of assets for operational execution of advantageous, front line procedures Will look for financing to actualize such strategies as requirements emerge Funding cycle and calendar Lengthy process from declaration of chance to dispersal of assets to non-NOAA members NOAA is tending to the gifts applications and honors prepare Asynchronous with typhoon season (would be profoundly attractive for undertakings to not miss a sea tempest season) USWRP and JHT staffs cooperating on feasible choices, including prior arrival of declaration of chance

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Thank you

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FY03 Point of Contact Distribution Dynamical model redesigns, obs/absorption ventures

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FY03 Point of Contact Distribution Cyclogenesis and track guaging ventures

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FY03 Point of Contact Distribution Intensity and precipitation ventures

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FY03 Individual Project Overviews Dynamical model updates, perceptions and digestion

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Upgrades to the operational GFDL sea tempest expectation framework Morris Bender (NOAA/GFDL) Goals: Test GFS surface material science bundle Modify downdraft detailing in SAS conspire Improve force blending in SAS plot Include impact of vanishing in huge scale buildup Modify arrive ocean cover for consistency amongst climatic and sea models Import and test most recent adaptation of Lin microphysics

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Improving the GFDL/URI coupled sea tempest sea demonstrate for move to operations Isaac Ginis (Univ. of Rhode Island) Goals: Improve sea segment of the coupled model in the Atlantic bowl (incorporate express init of Loop Current utilizing altimeter information) Implement sea coupling in eastern Pacific bowl (diminish positive power figure inclinations) Evaluate and exchange to operations another high-determination form of the coupled model (5 nm dividing inward work) Test and actualize new air-ocean flux parameterizations

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Hurricane demonstrate moves to operations at NCEP/EMC Hua-Lu Pan (EMC), Bob Tuleya (EMC temporary worker) Goals: Test GFS shallow convection and surface parameterizations in GFDL display Test mass microphysics bundles Run parallel variant with NOAH LSM in 2003 season Test WRF material science bundles Test versatile home HWRF Evaluate Hurricane WRF model, contrast with GFDL w/WRF physical science bundles, run the model operationally in 2005?

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Evaluation of upper sea blending parameterizations Daniel Jacob (GEST/UMBC) Lynn Shay and George Halliwell (UM/RSMAS) Goals Use primitive condition sea model to mimic upper sea reaction to three TCs (Gilbert, Isidore, Lili) utilizing practical driving and a few sea vertical blending models Compare recreated upper sea warm and ebb and flow structure to information from AXBTs, conductivity, temperature and profundity tests (AXCTDs), and ebb and flow profilers (AXCPs) Identify blending models that deliver most reasonable reproductions; give best vertical blending parameterization to NCEP for use in coupled models