Ireland s Energy Outlook

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Ireland's Energy Outlook L awrence Staudt Center for Renewable Energy, D undalk IT

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Overview Context Irish vitality patterns Irish vitality choices Irish vitality situations Conclusions

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Context "The inconvenience is that no practical mechanical, monetary and political procedures for the warding off of the effects of a decrease in ordinary oil supply are in sight." Society of Danish Engineers and the Danish Board of Technology (2004)

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Context – Irish Kyoto execution Source: EPA

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Context – Oil and Gas Supply Security Source: ASPO

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Context – Oil and Gas Supply Security

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Context – Oil and Gas Supply Security Source: International Energy Agency

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Context – Oil and Gas Supply Security

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Context – Oil and Gas Supply Security

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source: Economist magazine

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Context synopsis We are not meeting our environmental change duties Fossil fuel costs are unstable and ascending for the forseeable future, undermining the economy While interest for oil keeps on expanding unabated, a top in oil creation is unavoidable

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Overview Context Irish vitality patterns Irish vitality choices Irish vitality situations Conclusions

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Irish vitality patterns (utilization) Source: SEI

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Irish vitality patterns (imports) Source: SEI

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Irish vitality patterns (indigenous vitality generation) Source: SEI

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Irish vitality patterns (utilization estimate) Source: SEI

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Irish vitality patterns (renewable vitality) Source: SEI

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Irish vitality patterns (renewable power) Source: SEI

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Irish vitality patterns (ESB plant blend) 500 MW That's all that anyone could need base load generators to fulfill least framework request twice over… That's sufficient base load generators to fulfill least framework request Coal Peat (Must-run) CHP (Must-run) Combined Cycle Base Load Generators 0 MW 1980 1990 2000 2010 Source: D. O'Connor

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Overview Context Irish vitality patterns Irish vitality choices Irish vitality situations Conclusions

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Irish vitality alternatives – coal? Expansive coal saves around the world, in any case not reasonable Coal is nursery gas escalated Large-scale sequestering of CO 2 is still in the idea arrange Coal can't without much of a stretch supplant transport powers Conclude: coal can just guide the move toward vitality supportability, alongside oil and gas

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Irish vitality alternatives – atomic? Worries about waste transfer, cost, security, development time In Ireland atomic power era gives off an impression of being socially unsuitable The European Nuclear Society (euronuclear.org) states that "every one of the 439 overall worked atomic power plants can be provided for a very long while" with world uranium holds, i.e. atomic create ment is fuel supply constrained simply like fossil fills Conclude: atomic splitting won't help the move toward vitality maintainability in Ireland

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Irish vitality alternatives – renewables? Taken a toll concern Grid reconciliation concern – supply fluctuation and accessibility (really a cost concern) Huge indigenous renewable vitality asset (see next slide) Virtually no nursery gas outflows Will not be influenced by fossil fuel value instability Conclude: renewable vitality displays the main known probability for vitality maintainability in Ireland

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Irish vitality alternatives – renewables? asset approx. yearly vitality remarks wind power 1000 TWh e/y primarily on shore wave power 100 TWh e/y primarily seaward bioenergy 100 TWh th/y primarily wood the rest 10 TWh e/y tidal, PV, hydro 10 TWh th/y solar, squander Conclude: Ireland's essential vitality assets will be wind, wave and wood, and with these we can take care of our national vitality demand (185TWh/y, decreasing to ~100TWh/y because of vitality preservation and lower change misfortunes) Sources: ESBI/ETSU, Total Renewable Energy Resource in Ireland , 1997 ESBI, Accessible Wave Energy Resource Atlas : Ireland : 2005 KMM , Marine Current Resource Study for Ireland, 2004 KMM, Assessment of Offshore Wind Energy Resources , 2003 ESBI, Updating the Renewable Energy Resource in Ireland, 2004

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Irish vitality alternatives – renewables?

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Irish vitality choices – renewables? Renewable vitality asset positioning chart Source: SEI

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Irish vitality choices – renewables? Renewable vitality asset positioning chart Source: SEI

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Irish vitality choices – renewables? BNE cost (CCGT) 8.64c/kWh (50%>wind) REFIT cost 5.7c/kWh Source: SEI

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Overview Context Irish vitality patterns Irish vitality alternatives Irish vitality situations Conclusions

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Irish vitality situations Fossil fuel costs are unstable and expanding We are one of the world's most elevated givers to a dangerous atmospheric devation on a for every capita premise Ireland in a matter of seconds imports 90% of its vitality Ireland has a huge indigenous RE asset, that is accessible at sensible cost There is in the blink of an eye no other business innovation that can eventually supplant fossil fills Conclude: It is a judicious and moderate arrangement for Ireland to set out on a considerable renewable vitality advancement program.

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Irish vitality situations We will utilize everything accessible, except "wind, wave and wood" will be our essential vitality hotspots For power: wind and wave For warmth: bioenergy (wood) and warmth pumps For transport: electric vehicles, with some biofuels

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Irish vitality situations Can the economy support the capital venture required? What is the time span over which we should make this move? This is has been researched utilizing the ECCO model of the Irish economy (www.energyscenariosireland.com)

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Irish vitality situations ECCO Model results: Business-as-regular won't work, whether the oil pinnacle is presently or in 2030 If we dispatch a considerable national program for vitality maintainability, the economy can adapt to the capital speculation required, however just if the oil pinnacle is later instead of sooner Our alternatives seem constrained

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Irish vitality situations

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Irish vitality situations "If the time skyline for the looming crest in the creation of shabby traditional oil is as short as maybe a couple decades or less, the issues required in taking care of the circumstance are of a particular, handy nature. Hence, monetary strategies ought not depend on general, hypothetical suspicions that innovative advance will guarantee adequate supplies of oil or substitutes for oil." Society of Danish Engineers and the Danish Board of Technology (2004)

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Overview Context Irish vitality patterns Irish vitality alternatives Irish vitality situations Conclusions

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Conclusion s We require earnest activities, for example, Large-scale vitality protection Large-scale improvement of inland and seaward wind vitality Large-scale improvement of bioenergy Large-scale advancement of wave vitality Interconnection with Britain and Europe

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Conclusion s More critical activities: Inclusion of aeroderivative gas turbine s in the era blend Large-scale improvement power storerooms Development of the matrix to permit significant era in the west of the nation Large-scale request side administration

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Conclusion s The fossil fuel time must be viewed as a valuable however exceptionally short period in mankind's history Irish vitality strategy has not yet represented the essential variable of the drawing closer oil crest

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Conclusion s The cost of vitality is set to ascend for a long time to come as fossil energizes decrease This risk makes an open door for renewable vitality, which offers the main known plausibility for vitality supportability A renewable vitality future is alluring, conceivable and inescapable

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Thank you for your consideration! larry.staudt@dkit.ie, 042 937 0574

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