Future Energy

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Future Energy. Populace is high in view of accessibility of expansive fossil-energizes vitality, however is inclining to level off beneath 8.5 billion.World extraction of raw petroleum is cresting, characteristic gas will top soon and coal will crest in around 50 years or less.Nuclear vitality can't verge on making up the vitality setback after fossil-powers peaking.Renewable vitality is going ahead quick and can make up t

Presentation Transcript

Slide 1

Future Energy L. David Roper Professor Emeritus of Physics Virginia Polytechnic Inst. & St. Univ. roperld@vt.edu http://arts.bev.net/RoperLDavid/

Slide 2

Future Energy Population is high due to accessibility of huge fossil-fills vitality, yet is drifting to level off underneath 8.5 billion. World extraction of raw petroleum is topping, regular gas will crest soon and coal will top in around 50 years or less. Atomic vitality can't verge on making up the vitality shortage after fossil-energizes cresting. Renewable vitality is going ahead quick and can make up the fossil-fills deficit.

Slide 3

World Population World populace gives off an impression of being leveling off, as appeared by the way that the expansion in populace has been diminishing (see next slide).

Slide 4

World Population Change The change could go negative if renewable vitality is not created to make up the fossil-powers deficiency. That is, populace could diminish.

Slide 5

Assume Energy Consumption Levels Off This accept leveling off of world vitality utilize is like the clear leveling off of total populace. It relates to an asymptote of around 350 MBtu per individual for each year or 12 kilowatts for each individual , accepting that total populace levels off to around 8.3 billion. USA: 350 Mbtu/individual/year ( 12 kW/individual ) Industrialized nations: 200 MBtu/individual/year ( 7 kW/individual ) World: 75 Mbtu/individual/year ( 2.5 kW/individual ) Developing nations: 35 MBtu/individual/year ( 1 kW/individual )

Slide 6

Calculation Procedure Fit exhaustion condition to the extraction-rate information for coal, unrefined petroleum and regular gas. Figure the vitality versus-time bend for coal, raw petroleum and common gas and their total. Think about the fossil-energizes vitality versus time to the anticipated vitality use. Demonstrate that there is insufficient uranium to offer assistance. Figure the rate increment of renewable vitality required to compensate for any shortfall. It is feasible!

Slide 7

Depletion (Verhulst) Function Q  = a mount as of now extricated + sum left to be removed = aggregate sum to be separated n > 1 permits asymmetry. This furnishes a topped bend with conceivable asymmetry.

Slide 8

Peak Oil disclosures won't permit higher normal extraction. Perused Twilight in the Desert book by Matthew Simmons.

Slide 9

You can't separate it in the event that you have not found it! The territories under the two bends are the same: ~2x10 12 barrels .

Slide 11

"Penetrating for the residue" not "Bore infant bore" There is a boring apparatus lack.

Slide 12

Oil costs will ascend in the long haul! The last drops will cost the most!

Slide 13

Gas revelations won't permit higher normal extraction. Perused High Noon for Natural Gas book by Julian Darley.

Slide 14

You can't extricate it in the event that you have not found it! The ranges under the two bends are the same: ~8x10 15 cu. ft .

Slide 15

Sorry, Mr. Pickens!

Slide 16

Peaks at around 2065. Twofold known coal Unlikely! Known existent coal Recent investigation of energywatchgroup.org demonstrates that the real existent coal might be half of the "known existent coal".

Slide 17

Energy Content of Fossil Fuels 1 ton (2000 lbs) of coal yields around 25.2 MBtu . 1 barrel (42 gallons) of raw petroleum yields around 5.8 MBtu . 1 tcf (thousand cubic feet) of common gas yields around 1 MBtu .

Slide 18

Energy from Fossil Fuels Peaks at around 2025. Despite the fact that coal tops at around 2065, the cresting of oil about now and of normal gas soon makes the fossil-fills vitality crest at around 2025. Expect that 75% of every fossil fuel is singed for vitality.

Slide 19

World Population Projection Population with renewable vitality Fit of populace to accessible fossil-energizes vitality 1950-2006. Populace without renewable vitality

Slide 20

Energy From Fossil Fuels & Consumption World vitality utilization of 12-kW/individual Fossil-energizes deficiency! World, we have an issue! Fossil-energizes vitality

Slide 21

Energy From Uranium Net vitality from atomic reactors is not high. Poor quality minerals yield negative net vitality. See: http://www.stormsmith.nl/http://www.energywatchgroup.org/http://www.rmi.org/Double known net-vitality uranium Unlikely! Known existent net-vitality uranium

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Energy From Uranium Energy is not the appropriate response! In the event that we squander fossil energizes to create it, that will defer creating renewable vitality.

Slide 23

Energy Deficit from FF & Uranium Fossil Fuels & Uranium Other Energy Sources required

Slide 24

World Growth Rates for Renewable Energy Wind vitality : around 21% every year Photovoltaics : around 48% every year Biodiesel : around 40% every year Good News!! Terrible news: U.S. is a long ways behind different nations!

Slide 25

Renewable Energy Assumptions for a Rough Calculation Wind vitality will supply about ½ of renewable vitality Direct sun based vitality will supply about ¼ of renewable vitality. Biofuels will supply about ¼ of renewable vitality.

Slide 26

Renewable Energy Fossil Fuels & Uranium Other steady in time. Sun powered & biofuels

Slide 27

Renewable Energy Growth Rate 6.6% Doable with Effort! Buckle down! Unwind a bit.

Slide 28

World Growth Rates for Renewable Energy Wind vitality : around 21% every year Photovoltaics : around 48% every year Biodiesel : around 40% every year

Slide 29

Coal Moratorium Possibility Also, about the same as lessened coal holds as indicated by http://www.energywatchgroup.org/http://ie.jrc.ec.europa.eu/Possible choice to stop consuming coal in light of the fact that the contamination is executing an excessive number of individuals and the carbon discharged into the air is bringing on a lot of an unnatural weather change.

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Coal Moratorium Possibility Peaks at around 2015. Decreased coal consuming

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Coal Moratorium Possibility Fossil Fuels & Uranium Other

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Coal Moratorium Possibility 7.2% Doable with Effort!

Slide 33

How Much Land is Needed? 12 kW/individual x 8.3 billion individuals = 96 x 10 12 watts ≈ 100 terawatts. Current = ~15 TW .) Solar vitality = ~342 watts/m 2 at surface. Arrive range required at 10% proficiency = ~2.8 x 10 6 km 2 . Earth arrive region is ~1.48 x 10 8 km^2. In this way, ~1.9% of land is required. Utilize tops of structures, parking areas, roadways & railroads ( 1.1 x 10 5 km 2 ) for sun based and utilize agribusiness arrive and seaward locales for wind .

Slide 34

Future of Energy for the U.S. The computations are for the whole world. The U.S. is a long ways behind numerous different nations in creating renewable vitality. The U.S. has squandered the most recent decade in rolling out the required improvements. The U.S. must move rapidly to utilize the staying fossil-fills to build up the framework for renewable vitality. The greatest need is for individual & political will to roll out the essential improvements!

Slide 35

Peak oil/gas/coal is testing our Homo-sapiens cerebrum to perceive reality of it, make arrangements to relieve it and put the arrangements without hesitation. We are experiencing difficulty doing every one of the three. An unnatural weather change is as yet a tremendous issue despite the fact that fossil-energizes exhaustion will shield it from developing into the far future. (I have another discussion about that.)

Slide 36

This address is on the Internet, alongside other related addresses: http://www.roperld.com/science/energy.ppt http://www.roperld.com/science/GlobalWarmingPrediction.ppt (Energy and Global Warming) http://www.roperld.com/science/energyGWNMIA.ppt (Energy, Global Warming and the Next Major Ice Age)

Slide 37

Global Warming Due to Fossil Fuels Worst case estimation including carbon outflows from defrosting Arctic tundra and immersion of sea and vegetation assimilation of environmental carbon. See Six Degrees book by Mark Lynas.

Slide 38

Mitigating Global Warming Cutting carbon emanations by not consuming so much fossil fills will expand the required % expansion of renewable-vitality development, however is as yet possible. Underscore Lovin's negawatts more than kilowatts. Advocate motivators for module cross breed and electric vehicles. Advocate an electric Interstate Railway System. Advocate about "carbon dumping expenses and fines", not "carbon charge"; outline the issue!

Slide 39

Next Major Ice Age with Global-Warming Blip Extrapolation of a model fitted to the last two Major Ice Ages. Representing actuality that Earth normal temperature changes are about half Antarctica normal temperature changes.

Slide 40

Planning for the Next 1000 years It seems sure that, after fossil-powers have exhausted in the following couple of hundred years, the Earth will dive into the following Major Ice Age for around 100,000 years. It would help people to conform to the dive into the following Major Ice Age if the carbon-dioxide that is sequestered to diminish an Earth-wide temperature boost were accessible for discharge to back off the dive.

Slide 41

Future Energy L. David Roper Professor Emeritus of Physics Virginia Polytechnic Inst. & St. Univ. roperld@vt.edu http://arts.bev.net/RoperLDavid/