Examination of Microsoft PredictionPoint

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Incredible stuff!. Henry locations key issues. Striking: booking huge win, yet low interest!Let me outline: What hypothesis best clarifies disinterest?Method we ought to utilize: List conceivable theoriesIdentify varying predictionsCode cases in pertinent variablesEvaluate expectations for coded cases. Calendar Forecast Distortions.

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Slide 1

Dialog of Microsoft PredictionPoint Robin Hanson George Mason University Nov. 1, 2007

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Great stuff! Henry addresses key issues. Striking: planning huge win, yet low intrigue! Give me a chance to edge: What hypothesis best clarifies lack of engagement? Strategy we ought to utilize: List conceivable speculations Identify contrasting forecasts Code cases in significant factors Evaluate expectations for coded cases

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Important, huge market data picks up, yet oppose We each lowball our done dates Bosses like lowballing programming supervisors [Jorgensen et al J Sys Soft '04] "Signs capacity" P. Jackson on L.O.R. Plan Forecast Distortions Effort Target Date expect

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Theories of Disinterest Added precision not worth lost time Avoid new ways, unless "we new" Would state we doing terrible, require help Threatens existing conjecture specialists Fear trip insider exchanging laws Dislike information holes to outcasts Want "fudge" to look great to bosses Want "fudge" for line/outside observations

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