Universal Air Transport Consultancy Air Service Issues at North Dakota EAS Communities Presented to: Presented by: The North Dakota EAS Communities David Dague November 28, 2001
Slide 2Post 9/11 Air Service Changes
Slide 3Among the Major Carriers, United Airlines Had the Largest Service Decline and Southwest Had the Least % Change in Daily Scheduled Seats Pre September eleventh versus November 2001 Source: OAG Schedule Tapes
Slide 4Midwest Express Leads the National Carriers in Post 9/11 Service Declines % Change in Daily Scheduled Seats Pre September eleventh versus November 2001 Source: OAG Schedule Tapes
Slide 5The US Airline Industry Was in a Gradual State of Decline Before September eleventh Change in Load Factors From Prior Year US Major Airlines Source: Carrier SEC Filings.
Slide 6Even with the Federal Airline Bailout the Financial Results for the third Qtr Were Disastrous Source: Airline SEC Fillings.
Slide 7Large and Small Hub Airports Have Incurred Most of the Service Reductions Since 9/11 % Change in Daily Scheduled Seats From US Airports Pre September eleventh versus November 2001 Source: OAG Schedule Tapes.
Slide 8The Reduction in Flying After September eleventh is Equivalent to Grounding 800 Jet Aircraft Source: OAG Schedule Tapes, USDOT, Form41
Slide 9Nonstop Service Operated With Hushkitted Stage 3 Narrow Bodies Has Declined Significantly Since 9/11 % Change in Daily Departures by U.S Airlines Pre September eleventh versus November 2001 Source: OAG Schedule Tapes.
Slide 10The Majority of Post 9/11 Service Reductions at Hub Airports Have Occurred in the Early Morning and Late Evening Hours Source: OAG Schedule Tapes
Slide 11Mountain - 15.7% Northeast - 20.5% Central - 14.4% Pacific - 16.9% Great Lakes - 15.6% Southeast - 11.1% Southwest - 12.6% Florida - 9.2% The Northeast Region Had the Largest Decline in Capacity After 9/11 Source: OAG Schedule Tapes
Slide 12- 5.7% - 17.5% - 25.4% - 18.1% - 8.6% - 11.8% - 13.6% In the Central Region, North Dakota Had the Smallest Decline in Capacity Post 9/11 Change in Daily Seat Departures Pre-September eleventh versus November 2001 Source: OAG Schedule Tapes
Slide 13North Dakota's Post 9/11 Air Service Changes Source: OAG Schedule Tapes
Slide 14United's Hubs are the Hardest Hit in Terms of Post 9/11 Service Reductions Source: OAG Schedule Tapes
Slide 15Minneapolis Detroit Memphis Service Changes From Northwest Hubs Source: OAG Schedule Tapes
Slide 16Chicago ORD San Francisco Washington IAD Denver Los Angeles Service Changes From United Hubs Source: OAG Schedule Tapes
Slide 17Salt Lake City Cincinnati New York JFK Atlanta Dallas/Ft. Worth Orlando Service Changes From Delta Air Lines Hubs Source: OAG Schedule Tapes
Slide 18EAS Communities and North Dakota Air Service Issues
Slide 19North Dakota's Current Service Pattern Source: OAG Schedule Tapes, December 2001.
Slide 20During September 2001, Most of the North Dakota Airports Performed Better than the National Average September Passenger Comparison of North Dakota Commercial Service Airports U.S. Normal - 33.4% Devils Lake Minot Fargo Bismarck Jamestown Grand Forks Williston Dickinson Total North Dakota Source: Aeronautics Commission.
Slide 21October 2001 Passenger Boardings Have Improved But Still Not Near Normal Levels October Passenger Comparison of North Dakota Commercial Service Airports U.S. Normal - 22.9% Devils Lake Minot Fargo Bismarck Jamestown Grand Forks Williston Dickinson Total North Dakota Source: Aeronautics Commission.
Slide 22Initial Analysis of Air Fares Offered in the State Shows Discouraging Results for the EAS Communities Phoenix Leisure Fares Source: SH&E and UND Fare Tracking Database.
Slide 23Devils Lake Top 25 O&D Passenger Markets YE 2Q 2001 Source: USDOT, O&D Survey, by means of Database Products
Slide 24Dickinson Top 25 O&D Passenger Markets YE 2Q 2001 Source: USDOT, O&D Survey, by means of Database Products
Slide 25Jamestown Top 25 O&D Passenger Markets YE 2Q 2001 Source: USDOT, O&D Survey, through Database Products
Slide 26Williston Top 25 O&D Passenger Markets YE 2Q 2001 Source: USDOT, O&D Survey, by means of Database Products
Slide 27The Central Region is Devils Lake Largest Market Area, Accounting for Nearly Half of the Total Traffic Northeast 10.6% Great Lakes 7.6% Mountain 8.1% Pacific 9.7% Central 47.6% Southeast 4.8% Southwest 7.8% Florida 2.3% Source: USDOT, O&D Survey, by means of Database Products
Slide 28Well Over Half of Dickinson's Passenger Traffic Is Bound toward the West Northeast 5.4% Great Lakes 4.1% Mountain 29.6% Pacific 32.2% Central 6.0% Southwest 17.7% Southeast 3.2% Florida 2.0% Source: USDOT, O&D Survey, by means of Database Products
Slide 29The Central Region is Jamestown's Lake Largest Market Area, Accounting for Over Half of the Total Traffic Northeast 6.2% Great Lakes 6.1% Mountain 10.2% Pacific 8.5% Central 58.9% Southeast 3.8% Southwest 5.2% Florida 1.1% Source: USDOT, O&D Survey, by means of Database Products
Slide 30half of Williston's Passenger Traffic Is Bound toward the West Great Lakes 5.4% Northeast 7.9% Mountain 26.2% Pacific 24.1% Central 5.6% Southeast 4.7% Southwest 23.2% Florida 2.8% Source: USDOT, O&D Survey, by means of Database Products
Slide 31All of the EAS Communities Produce a Lower Percentage of Locally Generated Traffic Percentage of Locally Generated Traffic, YE 2Q 2001 State Average 54.6% Source: USDOT, O&D Survey, by means of Database Products
Slide 32SH&E Has Been Hired to Perform the North Dakota Statewide Air Service Update Analyze Air Fares Airline Recovery Feasibility of an Intra-State Network Feasibility of Expanded Service From the Four Major Airports - BIS, FAR, GFK, MOT Regional Jets New Hub Services Expand Existing Service Essential Air Service Program Enhancements Other Study Topics - Create Historic Databases, Role of Charters, Load Factors, Marketing Effectiveness
Slide 33National Guard, High Yields Great Lakes Better than Nothing Great Lakes EAS Stability Professional Staff Funds Their Own Infrastruc Code Shares Travel Agents Federal Aid Guard has Negative Impact on JMS Service Cutbacks on Weekends Canceled Flights/Reliability Slow to Pay Aircraft Comfort Devils Lake Discussion Topics Negatives Positives
Slide 34Frontier Connect, Term A Staff third Roundtrip in the Works New Local Terminal Safe Federal Aid Fuel Sales Station Manager Number of Flights Fare Equity to Alternate Apts Travel Agent Education Aircraft Comfort Dickinson Discussion Topics Negatives Positives
Slide 35Reasonable Air Fares Professional Staff Profitable Route Safe Federal Aid Lack of Cooperation to Increase Service Lack of Advertising NW Joint Fares Cheaper to Drive/Fly to FAR/BIS Small Plane Travel Agent Education Aircraft Comfort Jamestown Discussion Topics Negatives Positives
Slide 36Frontier Connect Safe Economic Benefits to the Community Great Lakes Positive Attitude Big Sky - Competition Federal Aid Fuel Sales Shared Flights with DIK Reliability Aircraft Comfort Williston Discussion Topics Negatives Positives
Slide 37General EAS Discussion Topics Funding Levels Increased? Would Someone be able to Else Provide EAS Service Statewide Big Sky Mesaba Alpine Security Issues Public Confidence in Turboprops 30 Seat Prop Feasibility Operating Incentive Measures
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