Address 6: Small scale Starting point of 911 (I)

0
0
1566 days ago, 534 views
PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Why did Osama Bin Laden orchestrate the assault notwithstanding his desire of American ... Osama Bin Laden: Invite the American Invasion under Taoism? ...

Presentation Transcript

Slide 1

Address 6: Micro Origin of 911 (I) – The Provocative Strategy of Al-Qaeda? 17 th February 2003 (Monday)

Slide 2

Session Arrangement T1: 10:00-11:00am Room 4472 [s] T2A: 11:00-11:50am Room 1403 [k] T2B: 11:00-11:50am Room 4472 [s] T3A: 12:00-12:50pm Room 4472 [k] T3B: 12:00-12:50pm Room 3301A [s] PLEASE FINALIZE TODAY!

Slide 3

Macro Vs Micro Origins George W Bush: Why do they detest us to such an extent? Full scale Origins: Long-term Historical Development Islamic Fundamentalism, Clash of Civilization, the American Pride … Micro Origins: Why was 911 organized that way? Why did Osama Bin Laden mastermind the assault notwithstanding his desire of American reprisal? Loaded Conspiracy; Bush Conspiracy; No Conspiracies …

Slide 4

Structure of Lecture 6: Does the Methodology of 911 Matter? 2 Possible Plans of Osama Bin Laden Minimalist Plan: Omar Doctrine Maximalist Plan: The Grand Strategy Conclusion: The " Taoist Strategy "

Slide 5

PART I Does the Methodology of 911 Matter?

Slide 6

Alternatives of 911 Assassination of President? Abroad Bombing? Partner with Anti-American Powers? Self-fortifying Movement? Social/Psychological Attack?

Slide 7

Does Methodology Matter? Doesn " t matter: The Invisible Hands Theory Does matters: The Marxist History Capitalism ��  Imperialism ��  Socialism Class Consciousness against Exploiters Some Yes, Some No Short-term Vs Long-term History

Slide 8

We Can " t Truly Understand the Planners: Goals of the Decision-producers Type 1: Goals on Paper Type 2: Goals by Research Type 3: Conspiracy Theories Goals not-researchable The American Conspiracy Theory The Al-Qaeda Conspiracy Theory Goals of Al-Qaeda: Which Level?

Slide 9

PART II Goals of Osama Bin Laden: Goals by Research or by Conspiracy?

Slide 10

Assigned Readings Main Text: Walter Laqueur: " Left, Right, and Beyond – the Changing Face of Terror " (H&R P.71-82) Supplementary Text: Tariq Ali: The Clash of Fundamentalisms . Section 20: The September Surprise. (P.290-302).

Slide 11

The Minimal Argument Laden has more abilities: Unconventional Weapons Jihad The Trend of Escalation " HK Military Expert " : " more to come " Aim: To drive America out of the Middle East

Slide 12

The Maximal Argument Laden has no more capacities: The Vacuum of US Intelligence Eradication of Al-Qaeda Headquarters Lacking in Mass Destruction Weapons Pentagon (e.g. Wesley Clark): No business as usual scale Aim: to change the world

Slide 13

PART III From Minimalism – The " Omar Doctrine "

Slide 14

Precedence: Monroe Doctrine (1825) Latin America (Central + South America) America " s Sphere of Interest End of Napoleonic War (1815) ��  End of Spanish Colonial Empire (1820s) President James Monroe: " America will be America " s America " (1825)

Slide 15

The " Omar Doctrine " If American needs to find psychological oppression and terrorizing, then it ought to pull back its drive from the Gulf and exhibit lack of bias over the issue of Palestine. " - Omar, Head of Taliban (Sept 24 2001)

Slide 16

Message from the Omar Doctrine " Middle East is Islam " s Middle East " Osama Bin Laden " s Video Speeches Omar rather than Laden: Victim Vs Aggressor

Slide 17

PART IV From Maximalism – Grand Strategy of Al Qaeda

Slide 18

" Grand Strategy " Professor Paul Kennedy: " Grand Strategy " in Cold War " War of Unlimited Boundaries " by Chinese Provocative Strategy The procedure to join the entire world against the United States To incite the Americans at 911 The Americans will battle in a crazy way and maddened the entire world

Slide 19

OBL Step 1: Hysteria of America Human Loss/Civilian Loss Vs Military Loss/Assassination Hysteria of Mass Opinion Getting out from the Vietnam War Shadow Hysteria of Government Extremist Foreign Policies Patriotism, Marginalization of Leftists New McCarthyism against the Muslims …

Slide 20

OBL Step 2: Alienation of Arabic Allies Sentiments of Muslims ��  Unification Crisis of Pro-Western Arabic Governments Coups d " etat? Saudi Arabia: the cash Crown Prince Abdullah " s Dilemma Pakistan: the atomic arms stockpile General Pervez Musharraf: Military Dictatorship by American Endorsement + Popular Election

Slide 21

OBL Step 3: Alienation of Western Allies Genuine Anti-war Movements Convince American Allies of the " Next Step of America " : towards its partners too Neutralization of the Western Bloc France: UN Veto control; The Uncompromising History … Germany: Real Leader of Europe … Turkey: Internal Security Concern …

Slide 22

OBL Step 4: Revolution of World Order Anti-Americanism as a New Culture: Message from the Anti-war Demonstration Message from the Internet Experience of Cultural Revolution in China: From " Great Disorder " to the " Great Order " Assumptions under Chaos Theory 2001-2003: Successful?

Slide 23

PART V Conclusion – Lessons from Chinese Philosophy

Slide 24

Osama Bin Laden: Benefit of the Doubt A " Calculative Planner " : the organizer who can see the result - Computer Simulation/RISK McArthur: I " ll be Back! A " Messianic Planner " : the organizer who can " t see the result - " Statements of Wisdom " Jesus: fall of Roman Empire

Slide 25

Taoism in International Relations Philosophy of Lao Zi " s Tao Te Jing: " The Way can be told is not the Way. " (Cp.1) " The Weak disguise its capacity to overcome the Strong. " (Cp.36) Osama Bin Laden: Invite the American Invasion under Taoism?

Slide 26

Analogy of the Business World Stock Market Unfriendly offer by little potatoes ��  Hysterias battle back by Tycoons ��  Chain Effects: sensitivity/partners/exceed of moguls … ideal to little potatoes Revolution of Stock Market

Slide 27

… Laden " s Grand Strategy An Unfinished Story Patience!

Slide 28

~~The End~~ Thank you for going to

SPONSORS