A NOVEL TOPOGRAPHY BASED LIMITED AREA MODEL FOR MAURITIUS

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A NOVEL Geology BASED Constrained Region MODEL FOR MAURITIUS . Mr. R. Virasami Pr. S.D.D.V. Rughooputh Dr. B. Pathack. Research Destinations.

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A NOVEL TOPOGRAPHY BASED LIMITED AREA MODEL FOR MAURITIUS Mr. R. Virasami Pr. S.D.D.V. Rughooputh Dr. B. Pathack

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Research Objectives The principle point behind this review is to adjust a high determination constrained zone demonstrate for Mauritius. The model ought to have adequate number of matrix guides so as toward contrast the distinctive meteorological parameters and the genuine perceptions over the island. This work is focused towards building up a local model for the island taking into the thought the height and the size. To apply novel data innovation systems and, in the meantime, guaranteeing the soundness of the material science and arithmetic for running such a model.. To make utilization of model yield measurements in order to expand the accuracy of the dynamic yields of the local model. To concentrate the atmosphere of the island concerning those little scale occasions particularly which are geography related

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Background Weather assumes a vital part in regular day to day existence and learning about its future state is pivotal for our economy and day by day life. Numerical climate forecast is a model, (in this setting a PC) program, that produces meteorological data (the climate) for future circumstances at given positions and heights. For the model, nonlinear scientific conditions for the material science and elements of the environment are explained yet since no correct arrangement can be inferred numerical strategies are utilized to get estimated arrangements, the gauge. The point behind Regional Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models is to create more nitty gritty estimates of the climate than those accessible from worldwide models. A better computational matrix on a particular territory, more point by point detail of landscape, and more advanced remedy of physical procedures are the other significant components which make up a local model

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Introduction to NWP (A concise history) In 1904, the Norwegian hydrodynamist V. Bjerknes proposed that the climate could be quantitatively anticipated by applying the total arrangement of hydrodynamic and thermodynamic conditions to painstakingly examined starting barometrical states. A British mathematician named Lewis Fry Richardson put in three years creating Bjerkness methods and systems to unravel these conditions yet do not have the computational offices . He visualized that some time in future there would a conjecture manufacturing plant with 26,000 bookkeepers doing the figuring to decide the climate designs far and wide In 1948, a youthful meteorological theoretician, Jule Charney , prevailing to determine disentangled scientific models of the barometrical movements, in view of the semi geostrophic approximations. These conditions would have the capacity to gauge the huge scale stream notwithstanding minor errors in the underlying investigations After quite a few years, meteorological perception, research, and innovation attempted to achieve the level important to make the calculations imagined by Richardson . . In April 1950, the first day, nonlinear climate forecast was made however required the round-the-clock administrations of the modelers and, as a result of a few ENIAC breakdowns, over 24 hours to execute. In any case, this first estimate was effective in demonstrating to the meteorological group that numerical climate expectation was doable. From that point forward advancement of enhanced and new NWP took after quickly as PC innovation enhanced

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The air The question of numerical climate forecast models is to aid the expectation of the climate. Be that as it may, the air is flimsy and little bothers in the stream can develop exponentially in time by methods for the components of baroclinic and barotropic precariousness The property of the climate, insecurity, is connected numerically to the non linearity of the primitive conditions. Bedlam hypothesis is additionally relevant to the air and in this way the future condition of the environment is greatly delicate to its underlying state.

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Components of climatic models

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Scheme of NWP

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Primitive conditions The establishment of any model is an arrangement of protection standards, and for environmental models are: - (i) preservation of mass - the progression condition (ii) protection of warmth - first law of thermodynamic (iii) preservation of movement - Newton's second law (iv) preservation of water (v) preservation of different vaporous and airborne materials - condition of state for perfect gas These standards are coupled into an arrangement of relations which must be understood all the while.

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Global models A model is controlled by applying the essential conditions to a 3-dimensional matrix of the earth and assessing the outcomes . The point of air models is to anticipate the future condition of the climate particularly parameters like winds, warmth exchange, radiation, relative dampness, and surface hydrology at every network indicate and assess communications with neighboring focuses.

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Limited Area Models Despite the utilization of worldwide models, the requirement for more nitty gritty yields of meteorological parameters has prompt to the improvement of Limited Area Models otherwise called Regional models. Another element which added to this improvement was the registering power accessible these days when contrasted with a few years back. Restricted Area Models utilized a better computational lattice on a particular region which is more illustrative of the real geology and more itemized calculation for element forms.

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General structure of a provincial NWP framework given to HRM by DWD Topographical information Graphics Visualization MOS Kalman Regional NWP Model Initial information (examination) Direct model yield (DMO) Applications Wave display, Trajectories Lateral limit information Verification Diagnostics

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Short Description of the H igh-Resolution R egional M odel (HRM) Hydrostatic constrained region meso- and meso- scale numerical climate forecast demonstrate Prognostic factors Surface weight p s Temperature T Water vapour q v Cloud water q c Cloud ice q i Horizontal wind u, v Several surface/soil parameters Diagnostic factors Vertical velocity  Geopotential  Cloud cover clc Diffusion coefficients tkvm/h

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Numerics of the HRM Regular or pivoted scope/longitude network Mesh sizes in the vicinity of 0.25° and 0.05° (~ 28 to 6 km) Arakawa C-matrix, second request focused differencing Hybrid vertical arrange, 25 to 50 layers Split semi-certain time venturing; t = 150s at  = 0.25° Lateral limit plan because of Davies Radiative upper limit condition as a choice Fourth-arrange even dispersion, incline adjustment Adiabatic understood nonlinear typical mode instatement or diabatic advanced channel introduction (Lynch, 1997)

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Hardware and programming determination Hardware : High Performance Server, FUJITSU SIEMENS - TX 300 Operating framework: Scientific Linux ( in light of RedHat Enterprise Linux) Compiler : Intel Fortran Suite Paralell preparing : MPICH Visualization : Grads

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Case think about: Tropical Cyclone Daniella (December 1996)

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Gusts and precipitation related with entry of Daniella Highest blasts recorded Source :MMS tornado report Source : Martin Seul (1999)

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HRM : Computational perspectives

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HRM: Track of T.C. Daniella

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HRM: Accumulated precipitation

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HRM: Surface winds

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HRM: Gusts

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Upper levels

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Results & Discussions It has been found that the model performed well on the brief scale and for the contextual investigation of tropical twister Daniella , its track and additionally its force was very sensible when contrasted with the genuine situation. Over the island, the HRM yield of precipitation and wind caught the microscale flags be that as it may, notwithstanding, did not have the exactness in size. It is must be noticed that it is the first occasion when that an investigation of the impact of a tropical violent wind at this determination over the island of Mauritius is being done utilizing a hydrostatic model. In addition, a ton of exertion was additionally made for setting up the server with the fitting programming and running this model as the server at the University was given in the start of year 2009 with no working framework or programming. All work were completed at first on portable workstation and afterward began without any preparation again utilizing the server. The idea of parallel handling utilizing MPICH is a first at the University and was effectively actualized on the server, subsequently improving the ideal opportunity for the running the model at 5-7 km.

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Future works ( i ) Mauritius is influenced by various climate frameworks which is on occasion little scale. These climate occasions will be concentrated independently utilizing input information from DWD worldwide frameworks trying to locate the model qualities and shortcomings when managing little islands. Furthermore, the expansive scale association between the planetary frameworks and thesmall scale marvels over Mauritius will likewise be examined. A similar climate occasions will be considered utilizing a non-hydrostatic model and the outcomes between these two models will be analyzed. Furthermore, display yield measurements will be connected to empower the investigation of the restricted impacts of meteorological parameters like ,exorbitant precipitation, related to these occasions.

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Future works (ii) The geography assumes an imperative part in environmental factors, for example, weight, temperature, stickiness and wind speed and bearings, precipitation conveyance over the island. The high determination dynamic demonstrating approach alongside model yield insights can concentrate these distinctive parameters as for little to microscale wonders. The precipitation dissemination over the island will be extricated from a nearby factual precipitation display which is identified with the geography and a relationship will be conveyed between the dynamic and measurable outcomes. The connection will be utilize

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